player value based on their 5v5 Impact and Part 2 looked at cap efficiency and contract expiry status. If you missed them, you can find them at the links below. Now, we need to tackle the value of prospects and draft picks to complete the NHL asset value picture.
In a previous post, I looked at the overall value of forwards, defensemen, and goaltenders in the context of all players on NHL full strength rosters. That initial assessment was based solely on player impact, yet there are other considerations in a salary cap league. In this post, we’ll look at two major factors that modify player value.
Add in supply and demand, where higher impact players are harder to find, and using the same average Impact/ $1M across the board to assess cap efficiency is not ideal. In this post, we’ll explore a new method of calculating value that gives some consideration to player impact.
While there are a multitude of factors that affect these two global factors, team SA/60 and team SV% seems like a good starting point for a model. Let’s dive in and create a new model to predict team GA/60 at 5 on 5.
Following the same approach used for the model for forwards, we are going to build a model to predict 5v5 on-ice GF/60 for defensemen
To forecast on-ice GF/60 for individual forwards, we will build a model following a similar process to the points predictor model.
Today, we take the next step in building out the model and look at the how contributions to goals for and goals against rates from individual skaters can be combined to estimate team goal rates.
Can we use data to find some teams that have overperformed and may end up fighting for their playoff lives down the stretch? What about underperforming teams that may find their groove just in time for the playoffs?
Hockey analysts often talk about limiting time and space for offensive players to make plays. If this does truly have an effect on the offensive players, we should be able to find support for it in the numbers.
How did the Tampa Bay Lightning’s forwards contribute to their championship season?