The San Jose Sharks hit the gas on their rebuild last season, putting themselves in the playoff race throughout the season. They fell just short, but It was a good sign for their long term success. They pulled out of their bottom out in a big way. What is important for the long term is that they sustain last season’s success going forward and start to build toward becoming a true contender. Mike Grier did not sit on his hands this summer, so let’s take a look at how his offseason moves shifted the Sharks outlook.
First off, we’d be remiss not to note the massive extension signed by Macklin Celebrini. Following on the heels of the record setting Leo Carlsson offer sheet, it reset the bar for highest AAV in the NHL again at $18.8MM. The Sharks and Celebrini settled on a 5 year deal rather than the maximum 8 allowable, which continued a trend seen with young stars this summer. Young stars coming off their ELCs and signing big deals are typically settling on a 5 year term. It’s an interesting development as there has clearly been a shift on the players side to avoid including UFA years in their second deal. It’s a great strategy on the player side to maximize career earnings by setting up a second monster deal in their mid 20s.
On the team side, the implications are different. When we look at the roadmap alongside Celebrini’s extension, we see his deal expiring just as the Sharks hit the Optimize phase of the roadmap. That means Celebrini will be due another big deal just as the Sharks are looking to contend and cap space is typically at a premium. It’s not an insurmountable challenge, but it leaves the Sharks in a position where they need to be cognizant of the future cap space they’ll require to keep their contention cohort in place through the end of the roadmap cycle.
Celebrini’s extension wasn’t the only big transaction for the Sharks this summer, as Mike Grier went shopping in free agency to add some veterans to his lineup. Mason Marchment, Jacob Trouba and Michael Kesselring all signed with the Sharks this summer. The Sharks also took on Darnell Nurse’s full contract from the Oilers, sending 24 year old Shakir Makhamadullin and 21 year old Zack Sharp to Edmonton.
Grier took on some significant cap hits for older players with these moves. It tightens their cap outlook but, to this point, it doesn’t seem to create any big problems. Short term, the Sharks have more flexibility next season as Logan Couture’s contract and Erik Karlsson’s retained salary expire, along with buyouts for Martin Jones and Marc-Edouard Vlasic coming off the books.
Long term, Celebrini’s deal is the base of the cap cliff. None of the contracts the Sharks took on this summer exceed the duration of Celebrini’s deal so we can look at these as moves that help the Sharks become competitive through the Develop phase of the roadmap. Vets like Nurse, Trouba and Marchment can help stabilize a young roster in the short term and can then be flipped for additional assets as they near the end of their contracts if that’s what the situation dictates.
Celebrini’s cohort should remain as Mike Grier’s top priority for the next phase of roster building. They look primed to drive the Sharks success as they come out of their rebuild and there is still plenty of potential in their pipeline that can supplement it going forward. Winning the draft lottery this spring, allowing them to select Ivar Stenberg at 2nd overall, adds yet another top tier prospect as they transition from Restock to Develop. And that wasn’t it, they also added defensemen Keaton Verhoff and Ryan Lin in the first round this spring. There are a lot of good pieces to work with, Grier’s next challenge is to develop the young players and start making difficult decisions to filter out the contention roster pieces from the excess.
