Draft picks are one of the assets every NHL team has at it’s disposal. Ultimately, there are two ways to turn each pick into another Continue Reading
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23/24 Team Profiles Overview
Last week, I put up an overview of the 23/24 Player Cards with some background on the projections and things to look for. Today, we’ll look at where the player projections come together – the Team Profiles.
23/24 Player Cards Overview
The 23/24 season player cards are now live with the initial set of player performance projections for next season. If you’d like a primer on the data included on the plots before browsing through them, read on.
A Look at the 2023/24 Season Models
While we’ve been enjoying the 22/23 season, I’ve also been busy working on improving my models with an eye on the 23/24 season. I’m starting to create some preliminary projections for next season, so I thought I’d provide an update on what’s changing in the model for next season.
Player Value Trends: May 2022
While the playoffs have been front and center in the month of May, front offices are looking ahead to next season and we’ve seen a few pending free agents players sign extensions with their current teams.
I’ve updated the 22/23 season value curves with all active contracts. Let’s take a look at the updated value curves and early trends in the market.
Assessing Value: Present Value vs Future Value
team for the current season. That approach may be the most appropriate measure of value for a contending team looking to win now, but it doesn’t give us much for a team in the midst of a rebuild. In the latter case, future value is more important and that’s what we’ll tackle in this post.
Determining Player Types
It’s obvious to even casual hockey fans that every player is not equal. Skill level is one obvious differentiator that we’ve looked at through the player projections, with overall impact as the measure of a player’s skill. Player type is another way to differentiate players based on how they approach the game and we’re going to delve into it in this post.
A Look At The 2022/2023 Season Models
I’ve been working on improving and updating the models used for the 2021/2022 season projections for next season. Now at the mid-point of the season, there’s enough data to start making some preliminary projections for the 2022/2023 season. With the trade deadline approaching, some teams will be starting to look at next year already so it’s time to a take the new models out of the box and peek at some early projections for next season.
Assessing Pick and Prospect Value
player value based on their 5v5 Impact and Part 2 looked at cap efficiency and contract expiry status. If you missed them, you can find them at the links below. Now, we need to tackle the value of prospects and draft picks to complete the NHL asset value picture.
Assessing Player Value Part 2: Other Factors
In a previous post, I looked at the overall value of forwards, defensemen, and goaltenders in the context of all players on NHL full strength rosters. That initial assessment was based solely on player impact, yet there are other considerations in a salary cap league. In this post, we’ll look at two major factors that modify player value.