Add in supply and demand, where higher impact players are harder to find, and using the same average Impact/ $1M across the board to assess cap efficiency is not ideal. In this post, we’ll explore a new method of calculating value that gives some consideration to player impact.
model
Model Update: Goaltender Projections
Goaltending is voodoo. Far and away, projecting goaltender impacts has been the most difficult piece to pull together in my models. My first attempt left Continue Reading
Model Update: Special Teams Impacts
After 5-on-5 results, there are two areas that I suspected constitute the majority of the remaining impact on team point percentages; special team and overtime results.
Model Update: 5v5 Defense – Version 2.0
I’ve overhauled the 5v5 defense in my models to give the skaters a larger impact. Let’s walk through the new models, then take a look at the updated 2021-2022 projections.
Season in Review: Overview
With the end of the regular season nearly upon us, we have an opportunity to use the models we do have to assess team performance from the 2020-2021 regular season.
Predicting Team Goals Against Rates
While there are a multitude of factors that affect these two global factors, team SA/60 and team SV% seems like a good starting point for a model. Let’s dive in and create a new model to predict team GA/60 at 5 on 5.
Predicting On-Ice GF/60: Defensemen
Following the same approach used for the model for forwards, we are going to build a model to predict 5v5 on-ice GF/60 for defensemen
Predicting On-Ice GF/60: Forwards
To forecast on-ice GF/60 for individual forwards, we will build a model following a similar process to the points predictor model.
Estimating Team Goals For and Against Rates
Today, we take the next step in building out the model and look at the how contributions to goals for and goals against rates from individual skaters can be combined to estimate team goal rates.
Predicting NHL Regular Season Point Percentage
Can we use data to find some teams that have overperformed and may end up fighting for their playoff lives down the stretch? What about underperforming teams that may find their groove just in time for the playoffs?