Today I’ll be looking at the West division in the last post of my series of mid-season predictions. The West division was expected to have two tiers of teams going into the season: a few strong teams that have the potential for long playoff runs and a few weak teams that are in re-build mode. Let’s take a look at the teams in reverse order of the standings (as of Feb 28) and see what we can expect in the second half of the season.
San Jose Sharks
The Sharks have struggled as expected this season, with all eyes on Patrick Marleau’s chase for the games played record. Their offense has been above average thus far into the season but they have struggled on the defensive side of the puck and Martin Jones has had a difficult year thus far. If there goaltending improves, the Sharks may be able to climb in the standings.
Current Position: 8th
Predicted Finish: 6th
Anaheim Ducks
The Ducks were expected to struggle this season and they have lived up to that expectation so far. They have the highest xGA/60 in the division and their opposition converts scoring chances above a league average rate, while they convert their own chances at a below average rate.
Current Position: 7th
Predicted Finish: 8th
Arizona Coyotes
The Coyotes defensive game is closer to the top teams in the division than the bottom and their offense has been average thus far. The Coyotes look poised to move up the standings if their underlying numbers hold, but it may not be enough to make the postseason.
Current Position: 6th
Predicted Finish: 5th
Los Angeles Kings
The Kings defensive game has been similar to the Ducks and Sharks. Their offensive game is the worst in the division, generating only about 1.9 expected goals per game. Their large expected goals deficit makes the Kings a likely candidate to fall in the standings through the remainder of the season.
Current Position: 5th
Predicted Finish: 7th
Colorado Avalanche
The Avalanche were expected to be a cup contender and currently sit fourth in the division. They have the strongest defensive numbers in the division. While they are among the best in the division at generating chances, they are converting their chances to goals at a rate slightly below league average. With the amount of firepower the Avs have up front, they look poised to climb the standings if their offense heats up.
Current Position: 4th
Predicted Finish: 3rd
St Louis Blues
The Blues have similar defensive numbers to the Avs and sit just ahead of them in the standings on the back of some very strong finishing. While they are converting their scoring opportunities to goals at a very high rate, they are only generating just over 2.0 expected goals per game. It should be comfortable to make the playoffs, but they may need to generate more opportunities to go on a run.
Current Position: 3rd
Predicted Finish: 4th
Minnesota Wild
The Wild are another team with strong defensive metrics and they have the best offensive numbers in the division. If they can continue to convert their opportunities at their current rate, they may have a chance to challenge for top spot in the division.
Current Position: 2nd
Predicted Finish: 2nd
Vegas Golden Knights
Strong on both sides of the puck, the Golden Knights were expected to be one of the top teams in the division and have not disappointed so far. They look poised to go into the playoffs as top seed in the division.
Current Position: 1st
Predicted Finish: 1st
Playoff Prediction:
If the Colorado Avalanche can get their offense firing on all cylinders, they have the defensive game established to make them a very tough out. They win the West and go on to win the Stanley Cup.
Stanley Cup Champion: Colorado Avalanche
Other posts in this series:
