We’re moving on to the Eastern Conference Contention Roadmaps today. It’s been a season of change in the Atlantic Division. Are we really seeing a changing of the guard?
If you aren’t already familiar with my definition of player tiers or other concepts used in the team analysis below, you can catch up with with some previous posts:
Atlantic Division Contention Roadmaps
As we did for the previous posts, we’ll look at the Atlantic Division teams in order of the current standings before we postulate what the division might look like five years from now.
Buffalo Sabres
It’s been 15 years since the Buffalo Sabres saw playoff action. They look poised to finally break their playoff drought as it will take a near monumental collapse for them to fall from the playoff picture at this point. Is it a mirage or are the Sabres for real?
The Sabres are riding a young group in their charge to the top of the Atlantic Division this season. Sure, there are a few vets sprinkled in, but the balance of the core is still approaching or just reaching their prime. The pieces are there for the Sabres to maintain this year’s momentum and truly turn our expectations of them upsidedown. There’s a strong Contention Cohort developing with a few very strong veteran pieces. The biggest question may be if they can supplement this group with a couple more younger pieces. Konsta Helenius and Radim Mrtka look like they could be those pieces. Will the Sabres be patient enough to carry their momentum after such a long playoff absence?
Tampa Bay Lightning
The Tampa Bay Lightning are 5 years removed from their back-to-back Stanley Cups. They’ve remained in the mix since that time and look like a legitimate contender once again this season. While the key players anchoring their success are mostly still there, the Lightning have turned over some significant pieces on their roster to maintain their standing in the Atlantic Division.
The Lightning have made moves to get younger of the past few seasons. Steven Stamkos is gone. Jake Guentzel and Brandon Hagel were brought in. They keep finding/producing legitimate NHLers from places other than the first round of the draft. The Contention Cohort is getting thinner though, with Brayden Point next to move to the veteran group. Their challenge going forward will be to continue to move on from some of their veterans and turn them into suitable replacements in their prime.
Montreal Canadiens
The Montreal Canadiens are the least removed from a teardown of the Atlantic Division teams. Things unraveled quickly after their Cinderella run to the final in 2021 and they ended up with the first overall pick just one year later. They’ve made quick work of revitalizing their roster and are pushing hard for a second straight postseason berth.
The Canadiens are rising quickly but the work isn’t done. Their Contention Core is still quite young and needs time to fully develop before they’ll be a true contender. There’s also a question of who will be their top 3 centers by the time this group is squarely in their contention window. Nick Suzuki is a capable middle six forward. Michael Hage has lots of potential. There’s a need for one more solid piece up the middle though. Can they find one through the draft? Will a summer trade season open another door?
Boston Bruins
The Boston Bruins broke the chart. They’re the living embodiment of the idea that teams should be able to regenerate their roster indefinitely. They’ve been retooling for 15 years already and look well positioned to continue to do so for the foreseeable future.
It would have been easy for the Bruins to sell the idea that they needed to rebuild at the end of the Bergeron era. But they already had some new anchor pieces for a contending roster in the fold in David Pastrnak, Charlie McAvoy and Jeremy Swayman. They’ve done a good job of bringing in a supporting cast, mostly in their prime, to complement those key pieces. They’ve been smart about moving older players while their value was still strong in recent seasons as well (Brandon Carlo for Fraser Minten and Toronto’s 2026 top 5 protected 1st is looking pretty good right now). The biggest reason to think the Bruins can remain relevant for another 5+ years is that they’ve been doing it for so long already.
Detroit Red Wings
The Yzerplan has been a slow burn for the Detroit Red Wings. They’re far enough from their tear down that it’s time for it to start paying dividends. After deciding to buy at the deadline for the first time of the Seider/Raymond era, a rash of injuries and some late season struggles are putting a playoff berth at risk.
The Red Wings haven’t climbed out of the basement as quickly as the previous cup winners and a look at their Contention Cohort provides a plausible explanation. It looks quite possible that this group just isn’t strong enough to lead a team in a contention window. If prospects aren’t seeing NHL action by D+5, chances are very slim that they’ll play a significant role in the NHL at any point. There are more promising prospects in the pipeline, but the whole process looks misaligned at this juncture. It’s may not be derailed yet, but the Yzerplan is teetering on the rails right now.
Ottawa Senators
Of the four teams trying to upset the order in the Atlantic Division, the Ottawa Senators are the furthest along on the timeline. It’s not been a smooth ride up the standings. Much like the Red Wings, it’s been a slow, difficult climb.
Where the Senators situation differs from the Red Wings is the size of their Contention Cohort. The Senators have a reasonable collection of skilled players that could be expected to lead a team in contention. There are a few quality prospects in the system as well that look like they could fill some holes in the contention group. There’s opportunity in the Atlantic Division right now. If the Senators can find a way to upgrade or add a big piece, they could be in the mix to be one of the next Atlantic Division powers.
Florida Panthers
Coming off back-to-back Stanley Cups, it’s a bit of a surprise to see the Panthers this far down the standings. Long term injuries to key players have taken their toll this season, however, and forced the Panthers to punt for another shot at glory.
Accepting that injuries were the key causal factor in this year’s tumble may be foolish though. Much of the Panthers roster is locked in long term. While there’s a good size Contention Cohort now, a large piece of it is about to bump into the veteran group. With an aging roster, the Panthers will have to find a way to offset age related decline amongst their group if they want to position themselves for another Stanley Cup run in the near future.
Toronto Maple Leafs
The Toronto Maple Leafs are in a dark place. What has been a perennially great regular season team that couldn’t break through in the playoffs looks like they won’t have the chance to fail in the postseason this year.
For those in Calgary that watched Brad Treliving dismantle a Flames squad that was just entering it’s window, watching the situation unfold in Toronto must feel like Deja Vu. The loss of Mitch Marner is looming large. Rumors that the Leafs may trade another significant piece surfaced ahead of the deadline. The GM and the hard-nosed coach he hired seem to have run out of answers. Yet someone assembled this veteran heavy group. If things continue to parallel Treliving’s previous team’s trajectory, this isn’t a bump in the road. It’s the start of a reality check.
Atlantic Division Power Rankings 2030/2031
The Atlantic Division has had three tiers for a long time: the top (Leafs/Bruins/Panthers/Lightning), the bottom (Senators/Wings/Canadiens), and the Sabres. The winds of change are blowing this year, though, and things may actually look very different in far less than 5 years. The Bruins and Lightning seem to be making the right moves to stay afloat in the Division. That’s less certain for the Panthers and Leafs. And all four rebuilding teams are showing progress right now. There’s still only 3 divisional playoff spots, though, so they can’t all make it.
Atlantic Division 2030/2031 Power Rankings
- Montreal Canadiens
- Buffalo Sabres
- Tampa Bay Lightning
- Ottawa Senators
- Boston Bruins
- Florida Panthers
- Detroit Red Wings
- Toronto Maple Leafs
More
Stay tuned for Contention Roadmaps for the Metropolitan Division. You can find the latest Contention Roadmaps here, the post on the Pacific Division teams here, and the post on the Central Division teams here.
