The Dallas Stars took a step back this season with a first round exit at the hands of the Minnesota Wild. In a division that boasted three of the top four teams, however, the shortfall has to be considered with a grain of salt. The Stars have been building around their 2017 draft and have seen an influx of help coming from their prospect pipeline.
As noted in the March Central Division Notebook, the Stars were a tricky team to place on the contention roadmap timeline. Here, we see a contention core centered on Roope Hintz and last year’s big acquisition Mikko Rantanen. It wouldn’t be wrong to select the 2017 draft cohort as the contention group either though, with Jason Robertson, Miro Heiskanan and Jaek Oettinger anchoring the group. Even then, we see yet another wave of incoming talent with Wyatt Johnston and Mavrik Bourque. The Stars have succeeded in creating waves of NHL talent that they can reload their roster around for a long time.
Perhaps where opportunity lies for the Stars to upgrade their roster in search of the next level is in the forward group. Jamie Benn, Tyler Seguin and Matt Duchene are still contributing but they’re reaching the latter stages of their NHL careers. Expecting a decline in their performance year over year would be a wise assumption and offsetting that loss is something the Stars should address. Benn is an pending UFA, but Seguin and Duchene have term left on their deals. Using them as trade bait is one avenue the Stars could pursue to a younger impact player.
Of course, the elephant in the room is the status of Jason Robertson. The pending RFA is a high impact player that will be near impossible to replace, particularly in the short term. The Stars could kick the can down the road with an qualifying offer, but that doesn’t help their long term competitive window. Dallas needs to lock up Robertson for the long term or find a trade partner that is willing to give up some major pieces as compensation.
Bringing in futures in a Robertson deal would be a welcome refresh for their pipeline, which has been depleted over the past few years as they’ve chased their Stanley Cup aspirations. However, such a deal could be catastrophic to the Stars current contention window. Removing Robertson from the picture tips the age profile of the team into the territory where they’re cresting their peak, much like we saw with the Oilers earlier this week.
To keep their window open, the Stars would have to get another high impact player in return which is generally very difficult to do in their situation. What might be possible, if they’re unable to lock up Robertson, is to look for a package that include a couple of young players later in their development that could backfill Robertson’s roster spot and upgrade another, while also building up the Johnston cohort. Perhaps a trade partner like the Ducks. Mason McTavish’s name has been out there for a while and they have a large crop of young defensemen.
It’s a pivotal offseason in Dallas. How the Robertson situation plays out could very well determine the trajectory of the roster for the next 5+ years.
