After back to back trips to the Stanley Cup Final, the Edmonton Oilers fell short in the first round this season, bowing out to the upstart Anaheim Ducks. In the February Pacific Division Notebook, we postulated that the Oilers may have crested their peak with the current core and a disappointing end to the season did nothing to suggest otherwise. Playoff disappointment followed a regular season that saw the Oilers come up second in the Pacific Division ‘pillow fight’ (Connor McDavid’s words, not mine).
The 10,000 ft view shows us a team that has crested their peak and when we zoom in, we see exactly the same picture. The Connor McDavid / Leon Draisaitl cohort is starting to exit their prime years. That’s an indicator that collective performance of the core group is about to decline and we’d like to see some help coming from a developing cohort. Secondarily, we see a collection of Guys supporting the Oilers’ dynamic duo. Plenty has been made about the Oilers need to upgrade their goaltending and I’m not going to suggest that isn’t needed. However, it’s not the only flaw in the roster. The supporting cast simply isn’t good enough, particularly the forward group.
With the Contention Cohort starting to age out of their prime, we’d like to see a developing cohort forming (formed?) ready to take over key support roles behind McDavid and Draisaitl. The problem for the Oilers; it’s not there. Sure, there are a few players that got their feet wet at the NHL level this season, but their numbers simply don’t suggest that they are strong top of the lineup candidates for the next wave.
Help from the pipeline doesn’t look likely in any meaningful way, either. The Oilers have (rightfully) been in all-in mode for the past few years and draft picks have been a primary currency to add pieces that, in theory, would push them over the top. The trouble now, is that the pipeline is severely depleted out to the 2028 draft and there is not a sizable group of strong prospects that the team can look to for immediate help.
Going into the 2026-2027 season, the Oilers don’t have a lot of room to maneuver on the cap front. Last year’s group is largely locked in for another season, with a handful of low cap hits set for free agency. Finding a way to move out a big contract or two that is not providing adequate value is likely necessary if the Oilers hope to be able to add the kind of impact forwards that they need. With 8 NMC and 5 M-NTC contracts, that could be a sizable challenge this summer.
Connor McDavid put the Oilers on notice last summer with his two year, team friendly contract. As we’ve seen, that’s not the only reason that time is not on the Oilers side right now. Running it back, even with a few minor improvements, should not be an option this summer. The Oilers need a paradigm shift to salvage the McDavid era.
