I’m moving on to the North division in my mid-season predictions today. The North has been an adventure almost every night, with plenty of goal scoring and generally lackluster defense. With no proven contenders entering the season and six teams that expected to be in the playoffs, this division should be exciting to watch down the stretch. Let’s take a look at the teams, in reverse order from the current standings (as of Feb 28) and focusing on their 5 on 5 metrics.
Ottawa Senators
The re-building Senators have generated offense well. However, they’ve given up even more chances against and have the highest goals against rate in the league. They’ve become a tougher out of late, but will have difficulty climbing out of the North division cellar.
Current Position: 7th
Predicted Finish: 7th
Vancouver Canucks
After a second-round exit in last year’s playoffs, the Canucks sit in a disappointing sixth place in the North. Their strong offensive metrics have been undone by the second worst expected goals against rate in the league and a high conversion rate by their opponents.
Current Position: 6th
Predicted Finish: 6th
Calgary Flames
Inconsistency has plagued the Flames early in the season. Their defensive numbers are second in the division. Goal conversion could be better in a division that has seen more than it’s share of goal scoring.
Current Position: 5th
Predicted Finish: 4th
Montreal Canadiens
The Canadiens have the best defensive metrics in the league and have also been one of the highest scoring teams in the league. The Habs look like a contender.
Current Position: 4th
Predicted Finish: 3rd
Winnipeg Jets
The Jets sit third in the division on the strength of their offense. Their defensive metrics are cause for concern. If they continue allowing a league high rate of scoring opportunities against and Connor Hellebuyck falters, they could be in for a slide down the standings.
Current Position: 3rd
Predicted Finish: 5th
Edmonton Oilers
The Oilers have one of the best offenses in the league, riding on the backs of Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl. Their defensive metrics are average in the North, but are still near the bottom of the league which could be a problem come playoff time.
Current Position: 2nd
Predicted Finish: 2nd
Toronto Maple Leafs
The Leafs have plenty of offensive firepower and it’s led them to the top of the division. Strong goaltending is keeping their goals against well below expected.
Current Position: 1st
Predicted Finish: 1st
Playoff Prediction:
Playoff Prediction:
The Canadiens stronger defensive game helps them outlast the high-flying offenses in the division and become the North’s Stanley Cup Semi-finalist.
North Division Stanley Cup Semi-Finalist: Montreal Canadiens
Other posts in this series:
