I’m starting my mid-season evaluation in the Central division, which includes both the reigning Stanley Cup champion Tampa Bay Lightning and the runner up Dallas Stars. Let’s take a look at each team’s performance so far this season in reverse order of the current standings. Standings and data below are as of games played Feb 28.
Dallas Stars
The Stars stifling defense took them all the way to the Stanley Cup final last season and they started this season hot. However, they’ve struggled of late and find themselves in last place in the division, although they still have games in hand after their delayed start to the season. Their defensive numbers are still good and the question will again be whether they can score enough in the playoffs.
Current Position: 8th
Predicted Finish: 4th
Detroit Red Wings
The Red Wings are in a rebuild are not a surprise to sit near the division cellar at this point in the season. Their defensive game has been relatively solid, with reasonably low chances against but their offense is simply not generating enough. A league worst rate of generating scoring opportunities leaves the Wings looking forward to the draft lottery.
Current Position: 7th
Predicted Finish: 8th
Nashville Predators
The Predators are another team in the Central with sound defensive metrics that have struggled to score and their record reflects that. Currently one of the worst teams in the league at converting scoring opportunities into goals, they need to improve their goal conversion rate if they hope to make the playoffs.
Current Position: 6th
Predicted Finish: 5th
Columbus Blue Jackets
The Blue Jackets sit one position out of the playoffs, yet their underlying numbers are troublesome. They sit second last in the league in expected goals for and have so far relied on converting chances into goals at a rate that may be difficult to sustain. Their defense in among the worst in the division so if their scoring drops off, they may be in for a rough ride.
Current Position: 5th
Predicted Finish: 7th
Carolina Hurricanes
The Hurricanes are league best at generating scoring chances by a significant margin. Their defensive numbers are okay, giving up less than 2.2 xGA/60 and holding opposition teams to a conversion rate less than 1.
Current Position: 4th
Predicted Finish: 3rd
Chicago Blackhawks
The Blackhawks came into the season in rebuild mode and sit surprisingly in a playoff spot at the moment. It may be too good to be true though, as they have among the worst defensive metrics in the division contributing to a large deficit in expected goal differential that could catch up to them.
Current Position: 3rd
Predicted Finish: 6th
Florida Panthers
The Panthers are allowing the fewest scoring opportunities against in the division and have been sound offensively. They looked poised to make their first playoff appearance since 2016.
Current Position: 2nd
Predicted Finish: 2nd
Tampa Bay Lightning
The reigning Stanley Cup champs are certainly not suffering from a cup hangover. Their defensive metrics are not far from where they were last year and their offense is potent.
Current Position: 1st
Predicted Finish: 1st
Playoff Prediction:
Due to the unique division realignment this season, the Starts get a Stanley Cup rematch with the Lightning in the first round. The Lightning come out on top and go on to win the division in a bid for a Stanley Cup repeat.
Central Division Stanley Cup Semi-Finalist: Tampa Bay Lightning
Other posts in this series:
