We’re far enough into the 2021 NHL campaign that the season starting hot and cold streaks have subsided and the true quality of teams is becoming more clear. Most teams have now played about 20 games against a variety of opponents and we should have enough data from this season to start evaluating team performance and making some predictions for the remainder of the season based on performance to date.
Over the rest of this week, I’m going to look team-based metrics to gauge where each team is at, focusing on 5 on 5 play. I previously looked at how championship teams typically rate on some of these high-level metrics that will serve a guide for predictions and I encourage you to have a look there if you haven’t already to gain a better understanding of my predictions.
Generally, I’ll be looking for the following from playoff caliber teams:
- They generate equal or more scoring opportunities than they allow;
- They convert their scoring chances to goals at a ratio greater than 1.0 or they generate greater than 2.2 expected goals per game if their conversion ratio is less than 1.0;
- Their opposition converts scoring chances to goals a ratio close to or less than 1.0 or they allow less than 2.4 expected goals per game.
And for Stanley Cup contenders, I’m looking for the following:
- They generate significantly more scoring opportunities than they allow;
- They convert their scoring changes to goals at a ratio greater than 1.0 and they generate greater than 2.2 expected goals per game;
- Their opposition converts scoring chances to goals a ratio close to or less than 1.0.
Watch for new posts through this week where I’ll look at each division, including my pick on which team will advance to the Stanley Cup semi-finals out of their division and the Stanley Cup champion. Follow the links below for each division:
