With reports of a rift between Jack Eichel and the Buffalo Sabres, trade rumors heated up in the 2021 offseason. The rumors were finally put to bed when the Vegas Golden Knights acquired Eichel early in the 21/22 season. With Eichel set to make his debut for the Knights tonight, let’s take a look at the deal.
The Trade
Date: Nov 4, 2021
To Vegas Golden Knights:
- Jack Eichel ($10M cap hit, signed through 25/26, UFA on expiry, age 25)
- 2023 3rd Round Pick (BUF) *conditional
To Buffalo Sabres:
- Alex Tuch ($4.75M cap hit, signed through 25/26, UFA on expiry, age 25)
- Peyton Krebs ($863k cap hit, signed through 23/24, RFA on expiry, age 21)
- 2022 1st Round Pick (VGK) *conditional
- 2023 2nd Round Pick (VGK) *conditional
*conditions: If VGK 2022 1st Round Pick is in the top 10, all draft picks slide 1 year later.
Initial Value Assessment
The Vegas Golden Knights acquired one of the top centers in the NHL in this deal but it came at a steep cost. The Sabres clearly received a large windfall in terms of future value, yet the assessment even gives them an edge in current value due to Eichel’s $10M cap hit. With the Knights already up against the cap, they’re left in a tricky spot managing their cap for the remainder of the season and into next. With Eichel coming off LTIR to make his debut, Mark Stone went on LTIR due to a back issue. If they follow a similar path as the Lightning last season, they may be able to keep the team in tact for the playoffs but they will have a cap crunch to deal with in the 2022 offseason.
If you missed the posts on assessing value, you can find them here: Part 1 (Player Impact), Part 2 (Other Factors for Players), Part 3 (Prospects and Picks), Part 4 (Future Value).
Performance Updates
While Eichel is set to make his debut with the Golden Knights tonight, both Alex Tuch and Peyton Krebs have already made their debuts for the Sabres. Let’s take a look at performance since the trade.
Vegas Golden Knights – Jack Eichel
Jack Eichel’s projections for this season put him as a legitimate top line forward. The difference between his projected value and cap hit is the potential Achilles heel in this trade for the Golden Knights. From the outside, it looks suspiciously like the Knights are playing some LTIR games to field a stronger team in the playoffs so Eichel’s value to Vegas may come down to this year’s postseason results. The other factor to consider is his injury history. With his 20/21 results no doubt affected by his health, it’s reasonable to think he will exceed projections in 21/22.
Vegas Golden Knights – 2023 3rd Round Draft Pick (BUF)
A future asset with nothing to evaluate yet.
Buffalo Sabres- Alex Tuch
Alex Tuch became the best forward on the Sabres when he arrived in town. Like Eichel, he missed the start of the season with an injury but returned earlier than Eichel and now has 16 games played with Buffalo. He’s made a strong first impression in upstate New York with an offensive outburst that is wildy exceeding projections. His on-ice xGA/60 has taken a turn for the worse, but that is likely a team effect as he moved from a contender to a rather porous defensive team.
Buffalo Sabres – Peyton Krebs
Peyton Krebs was on the outside in Vegas, so we used his prospect value from Hockey Prospecting in the trade assessment for future value. With a strong chance to become an NHL regular, the Sabres added a good prospect to their system. With a weaker team in Buffalo, Krebs has also seen action at the NHL level this season.
Buffalo Sabres – 2022 1st Round Draft Pick (VGK)
A future asset with nothing to evaluate yet.
Buffalo Sabres – 2023 2nd Round Draft Pick (VGK)
A future asset with nothing to evaluate yet.
The Verdict
The Sabres were in a tough spot with Eichel’s injury status and trade demand, but held out and got a solid return for him. They gained significantly in future value and may have even come out ahead in current value when cap space is taken in to consideration. The big caveat is how much Eichel’s performance in recent seasons was impacted by his injury, thereby also lowering his future projected impact.
This will be an interesting one to watch going forward and we’ll keep our eye on it for future updates. Subscribe to get future check-ins on this trade and others along with other updates from around the NHL.
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