2021 Offseason Update: July 14-20

Deadlines spur action and the pre-expansion roster freeze was no exception. Which teams won and lost in the flurry of activity leading up to the roster freeze? Let’s take a look.

Best Buyout: Florida Panthers – Keith Yandle

The Florida Panthers bought out the remaining 2 years of defenseman Keith Yandle’s contract. Yandle projects as a second pair defenseman for the 21/22 season, but his $6.35M cap hit made this a low value contract for the Panthers. Yandle’s projected impact per $1M was 0.03 Net G/60, well below the 25th percentile. With some in house replacements ready to fill the void, the Panther’s got a slight bump to their projected point percentage following the buyout.

Worst UFA Signing: New York Islanders – Andy Greene

There weren’t many UFA re-signings leading up to the roster freeze and most were for depth players. The Islanders are in tight against the cap and, after clearing some cap space by dealing Nick Leddy to Detroit, they re-signed Andy Greene to a 1 year, $1M contract. While Greene’s projected impact per $1M is quite good, his overall projected impact is only that of a 7th defenseman. Under the assumption that the Isles deploy him in a similar role as last season, Greene’s addition on the team point projection is slightly negative. Not only that, but Greene is 38 and one has to wonder if the Isles couldn’t have found a younger option.

Best RFA Signing: Florida Panthers – Anthony Duclair

Anthony Duclair re-signed with the Florida Panthers for 3 years at a $3M cap hit. With a projected impact of a legitimate first line forward, this contract looks like a steal for the Panthers. Duclair’s projected impact per $1M is well over the 75th percentile, nearly triple the median. At age 25, it’s reasonable to expect that he will continue to provide top end impact at great value for the duration of the 3 year deal.

Honorable Mention: Florida Panthers – Gustav Forsling

The Panthers had a good week, also re-signing pending RFA Gustav Forsling to a 3 year deal with a $2.67M cap hit. With the projected impact of a borderline 1st/2nd pair defenseman, it looks like another great value contract for the Panthers.

Biggest RFA Gamble: Dallas Stars – Miro Heiskanen

Miro Heiskanen has shown flashes of brilliance, particularly during the Stars 2020 playoff run. The Stars rewarded him for it with an 8 year deal with a cap hit of $8.45M and Heiskanen projects as a top pair defender at only age 21. However, the initial projected value for the 21/22 season is below average. The Stars are banking on Heiskanen to continue to develop into a star defenseman. If he does, the Stars could have a terrific value contract in the latter years of the deal.

Highest Impact Trade: New Jersey Devils – Ryan Graves

The Devils took advantage of the expansion landscape to scoop Ryan Graves from the Colorado Avalanche. The Avs were likely to lose Graves in the expansion draft and recouped some assets for a good player by dealing him first. Graves projects as top pairing defenseman, providing excellent value for his $3.17M cap hit. While he was stuck behind Colorado’s big three defensemen on the depth chart in Denver, he is likely to get a larger role with the Devils. The Devils projected point percentage gets a +0.016 jump with the trade, while Colorado’s takes only a -0.002 hit.

Honorable Mention: Philadelphia Flyers – Ryan Ellis

The Flyers gave up Nolan Patrick and Philippe Myers to acquire Ryan Ellis from Nashville as part of a three team trade with the Predators and Golden Knights. Ellis projects as a top pair defenseman and his value based on cap hit is near the league median. The Flyers get a +0.005 bump to their P% projection with the trade.

Best Win-Win Trade: New York Islanders / Detroit Red Wings

The Red Wings and Islanders made the best win-win trade with Nick Leddy heading to Detroit for Richard Panik and a 2nd round pick. Both teams get a slight bump to their 21/22 point percentage projections, the Islanders clear some badly needed cap space, and the Red Wings get a veteran defenseman with 1 year left on his contract who can mentor their young D-corps and that they can flip for more assets at the trade deadline.

Biggest Head Scratcher: Toronto Maple Leafs – Jared McCann

The Toronto Maple Leafs made an astute looking trade, acquiring Jared McCann from the cap constrained Penguins. McCann’s projected impact is that of a top line forward, yet he comes with a very reasonable $2.94M cap hit. The addition gave the Leafs’ projected P% a +0.008 jump. Now, the head scratching part: the Leafs then did not protect McCann for the expansion draft, electing instead to use an 8-1 protection scheme in order to protect an additional defenseman. McCann looks like an awfully attractive target for the Kraken. Why make this trade before the expansion draft?