2021 Offseason Update: July 7-13 - Puck Luck Analytics

With the Stanley Cup awarded and the expansion draft only a week away, the 2021 NHL offseason is starting to heat up. Let’s jump in and take a look at some of the notable moves over the past week.

Best RFA Signing – Travis Dermott (TOR)

The most notable free agent signings over the past week came in the form of RFA re-signings. The Toronto Maple Leafs walked away with the best deal, signing defenseman Travis Dermott to a 2 year deal with a cap hit of $1.5M. While Dermott’s projection is that of a borderline 2nd pair defenseman, it’s more likely that the Leafs will use him in a 3rd pairing role where he will provide good depth. This will also give the Leafs an option that can move up the depth chart as injuries take their toll through the season. Finally, Dermott’s contract is quite reasonable given his projected impact. His his impact per $1M is just above the 75th percentile league wide.

Most Lopsided Trade – Duncan Keith (EDM) / Caleb Jones (CHI)

After rumors circulated for a couple of weeks about a possible move to Edmonton for Duncan Keith, a deal finally came together this week. Duncan Keith and a low level prospect head to Edmonton, while Caleb Jones and a conditional 3rd round pick head to Chicago.

Ken Holland set out to find more ‘greybeards’ this offseason and he certainly took a step in that direction with this trade. However, it’s hard to find a positive here for the Oilers when we dig into the numbers. Keith played top pairing minutes for the Blackhawks last season but he has been on the decline for about 5 years and his projection for the 2021-2022 season is less than that of a 3rd pairing defenseman. With a $5.5M cap hit, his impact per $1M is atrocious. Conversely, 24 year old Caleb Jones projects as a borderline top pairing defenseman and his $850k cap hit makes his projected impact per $1M among the best in the NHL.

Based on our projections, it looks like the Blackhawks not only get the better long term building blocks from this trade, but the better defensemen for 2021-2022 as well. The Blackhawks get a boost of +0.006 to their 2021-2022 point projection following the trade, while the Oilers take a -0.006 hit.

Worst Buyouts – Zach Parise / Ryan Suter (MIN)

While it may be unfair to categorize the only buyouts of the week as the worst, the impact of buying out Zach Parise and Ryan Suter on the Minnesota Wild’s cap situation is mind-boggling. Both players had 4 years remaining on their deals, with identical cap hits over $7M. With the buyout cap hit spread over 8 years, these buyouts will be on the Wild’s books for nearly a decade. Not only that, but the combined cap hit for the two buyouts in the 2023-2024 and 2024-2025 seasons is nearly $15M. It’s hard to fathom how a team can expect to contend with that much dead cap space. The only logical conclusion seems to be that the Wild are targeting a contention window more than 4 years out.

The short term implications don’t look great either. While neither player provided full value for their lofty cap hit over the past couple of seasons, they are both still serviceable NHL players. Parise projects as a second line forward and Suter as a second pair defenseman. With the buyouts dropping the Wild’s projection for the 2021-2022 season by 0.007 and the cap implications set to kneecap the Wild for years to come, the Oiler’s acquisition of Keith may have lost the title of worst offseason move after just one day.