Since last week’s update, we’ve seen a number of season opening streaks come to an end. The Carolina Hurricanes were handed their first loss by the Florida Panthers, the Panthers picked up their first regulation loss against the New York Rangers, and the Coyotes finally found the win column against the Seattle Kraken. The Dallas Stars now have the only active season opening streak, as they are the only team without a regulation win. Let’s recap how each division has fared over the past week.
Pacific Division
In the Pacific Division, the Edmonton Oilers and Calgary Flames have cemented themselves as early favorites with their continued strong play. The San Jose Sharks have surprised many through the early season and are hanging with the Alberta teams in the current standings and full season projections, despite a Covid outbreak that has landed upwards of 7 regulars on the sidelines over their past 5 games. The Seattle Kraken continue to struggle to find consistency and we see their full season projection starting to slide out of touch with the division leaders.
The Vegas Golden Knights, Los Angeles Kings, and Anaheim Ducks have all found their games recently and have been stringing victories together. The Kings are on a 6 game win streak, while the Ducks have a 5 game win streak and 7 game point streak of their own. The Vancouver Canucks continue to show flashes of their potential, but haven’t been able to string wins together with just one 2 game streak so far this season.
Team Spotlight – Vancouver Canucks
The Vancouver Canucks have struggled to string wins together so far this season, with just one set of back-to-back wins on the season. Elias Pettersson and Brock Boeser have had rough starts to the season, producing at rates around the 25th percentile league wide at 5v5. The Canucks offense has struggled along with their stars and it’s a major reason why the Canucks are still trying find their groove. The Canucks goaltending, on the other hand, has been outstanding, with both Thatcher Demko and Jaroslav Halak sitting at the 75th percentile for 5v5 GSAx/60 among goalies with at least 100 5v5 minutes this season. For a more on the Canucks early season results, check out their report card posted earlier this week.
Player Spotlight – Oliver Kylington (CGY)
There were 31 teams who passed on Oliver Kylington as he started the season on waivers at the end of the preseason. After an early opportunity to get into the lineup, Kylington has cemented himself into Flames’ top four. Kylington currently sits 3rd among NHL defensemen in 5v5 P/60 among players with at least 100 5v5 minutes this season. Paired with Chris Tanev, he has also been defensively sound with his on-ice xGA/60 trending well below projected.
Central Division
The St Louis Blues continue to climb in the Central Division full season projections. They now sit in a dead heat with the Minnesota Wild in the full season projections. The Wild have an active 3 game win streak and will look to extend it to keep pace. The Avalanche appear to finally be getting healthy and sit third in the full season projections, ahead of the Nashville Predators. The Predators lost Filip Forsberg to an upper body injury against the Flames this week and will need offensive output from others while Forsberg is in the press box.
The Winnipeg Jets have found their game, with just one regulation loss in their last ten games, and continue their climb toward the division leaders in the full season projections. The Dallas Stars are still looking for their first regulation, while the Chicago Blackhawks seems to have stabilized after a rough start to the season. The Arizona Coyotes found the win column for the first time this week, and their full season projection climbs back onto the chart as a result.
Team Spotlight – St Louis Blues
The Blues are off to the best start in the Central Division and we’ve seen their full season projection climb to the top of the division as a results. Their offense has been firing on all cylinders so far, with six forwards producing at rates higher than the 75th percentile league wide at 5v5. Their goaltending has also been solid, which has helped them rack up wins despite less than stellar defensive numbers. With Colton Parayko the only Blues defenseman with a 5v5 xGA/60 below the league median, the Blues will need to shore up their defensive game to sustain their early season success. Stay tuned for a new regular season report card featuring the Blues coming soon.
Player Spotlight – Kyle Connor (WPG)
Kyle Connor has been an offensive force for the Jets for years and his goal scoring prowess has continued this season. He sits 6th among NHL forwards in 5v5 G/60 after 12 games, while sporting a 19% shooting percentage. Connor has been playing over 16 minutes at 5v5 a night, giving him plenty of opportunity to continue his current groove.
Atlantic Division
There is movement afoot among the Atlantic Division leaders. The Boston Bruins have lost their large edge in the full season projections, largely due to the new goaltending model I implemented this week, but also due to pedestrian results that have seen them pick up just one win in their last six games. The Florida Panthers hot start came crashing to an end this week, with back-to-back losses to the Rangers and Devils and their full season projection climb halted as a result. Meanwhile, the Toronto Maple Leafs and Tampa Bay Lightning have been heating up. The Leafs rattled off a five game win streak before falling to the Kings in their last outing, while the Bolts are on a six game point streak.
The Detroit Red Wings seem to have fallen off their early pace and are not sitting closer to their projected strength. The Montreal Canadiens continue to struggle and we see their full season projection continue to slowly drop. The good news for the Habs is that Carey Price has returned to the team. While he is not expected in the lineup soon, perhaps it will give the Canadiens a spark. The Buffalo Sabres are another team that has cooled after an unexpected strong start and sit just ahead of the Ottawa Senators in the full season projections.
Team Spotlight – Florida Panthers
The Florida Panthers were the last team without a regulation loss after they defeated the Carolina Hurricanes on the weekend. That streak, however, came crashing to an end days later with losses to the Rangers and Devils. The Panthers offense has powered their early season success, which is no surprise with the strong forward group they have put together. Sam Bennett has continued his strong play that followed his trade to Florida last season, the top line is off to a great start, and youngsters Owen Tippett and Mason Marchment are also chipping in offensively. On defense, the Panthers seem to still looking for an answer for their bottom pair with just five defensemen hitting hitting the 50 minute mark for 5v5 TOI so far this season. Check out the regular season report card posted earlier this week for a more detailed look at the Panthers season so far.
Player Spotlight – Victor Mete (OTT)
A waiver pickup by the Senators last season, Victor Mete has produced when given an opportunity. He sits 2nd among NHL defensemen in 5v5 assists/60 among skaters with more than 100 minutes at 5v5 this season. Not only that, but all of his 5v5 assists have been primary assists. His defensive impacts haven’t been great this season though and he’ll need to turn that around to climb up the Senators depth chart.
Metropolitan Division
The Metropolitan Division has been the most tightly contested this season and none of the eight teams appear to be dropping out of the fight anytime soon. All eight teams currently have full season point percentage projections that are above the historical playoff cutoff from the past three seasons of roughly 0.570. The gap from first to eighth is just 0.029 P% in the full season projections, or about 5 standings points.
Team Spotlight – Carolina Hurricanes
The Hurricanes were the last undefeated team in the NHL this season, before falling to the Panthers this week. The Hurricanes success has come by committee so far, with a few forwards dramatically outperforming projections and most performing near expectations. Jaccob Slavin leads NHL defensemen in 5v5 P/60 and Ethan Bear has found a landing spot on the top pair following his offseason trade from Edmonton. Watch for a new regular season report card with a more in depth look at the Hurricanes early season results coming soon.
Player Spotlight – Dougie Hamilton (NJD)
The offseason’s prized free agent, Dougie Hamilton is off to a good start with the New Jersey Devils. He sits 4th among NHL defensemen in 5v5 G/60 and 8th in 5v5 P/60 among skaters with more than 100 minutes played at 5v5. He has been a factor in the Devils strong start and they will need him to keep pace in the packed Metropolitan Division. Sidelined for the past few games with an injury, Hamilton is listed as day-to-day and should be back in action soon.
Full Regular Season Updates
For a full set of updated roster plots and in-season tracking, see the 2021-2022 Season Projections page. Also, subscribe to catch new team report cards and more league wide updates throughout the season.
