The St Louis Blues came out of the gate strong, stringing together 5 wins to start the 21/22 season. They have cooled since then, but have quietly climbed up the Central Division full season projections with their solid start. Let’s take a look at their early season results.
Grades
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Record
The Blues started the season with a five game winning streak and have alternated wins and losses since then. It’s enough to sit one point behind the Wild at the top of the Central division standings at this early stage of the season. It’s also helped pull up their full season projection to challenge for the top seed in the division.
Even Strength Offense
The Blues offense has been decent to start the 21/22 campaign. Their 5v5 GF/60 sits just outside the top ten in the NHL and is slightly higher than their projected rate. There is some slight concern that they’ve benefitted from some percentage luck, with their expected goals for rate somewhat lower, however they still rank in the middle third of the league in that regard.
The Blues have spread the load offensively, with six forwards sitting in above the 75th percentile in leauge-wide scoring rates, both 5v5 G/60 and 5v5 P/60. Jordan Kyrou leads the way, while offseason additions Brandon Saad and Pavel Buchnevich are also contributing. The defense corps has not contributed offensively to the same extent, with only Torey Krug putting up 5v5 P/60 exceeding projections thus far.
Even Strength Defense
The Blues rank 11th in the league in 5v5 GA/60, which could lead us to believe they have been sound defensively. However, there are warning signs that all is not well just below the surface. The Blues expected goals against rate is over half a goal per 60 higher than their actual rate and they rank 29th in the league for xGA/60. Goaltending has simply been outstanding through the early part of the season, which is masking some defensive issues. The Blues will need to iron out the defensive side of their game if they hope to stay in the hunt for top spot in the division.
The Blues have only three forwards and one defenseman who currently have 5v5 on-ice xGA/60 below the league median. Three defensemen sit well over the 75th percentile, which is also well above their individual projections. It’s simply not good enough to expect to be among the league’s top teams. The Blues goaltending has been outstanding so far and has kept them in games despite the poor defensive numbers. Jordan Binnington’s GSAx/60 sits around the 75 percentile through 9 starts and backup Ville Husso is the league leader in GSAx/60, although he’s only played one game thus far.
Powerplay
The Blues powerplay has been excellent to start the season. Sitting second in the NHL in 5v4 GF/60, there appears to be some significant percentage luck at play so far. However, they are generating expected goals at a rate that is ranked in the top ten in the league, so the powerplay should remain strong even if the finishing luck regresses.
Penalty Kill
Unlike their even strength defense, the Blues’ penalty kill has been excellent so far. Goaltending hasn’t been the only reason for it either. While they rank 3rd in the NHL for 4v5 GA/60, their expected goals rate is also in the top ten.
Lineup Notes
Like many teams at this point in the season, the Blues have seen a few players miss time due to Covid protocols but they’ve avoided any long term injuries to this point. Oskar Sundqvist, who has been out since last March with a knee injury, is reportedly nearing a return. Sundqvist’s projected impact is a borderline 2nd/3rd line forward and his return will improve an already deep forward group.
Up Next
- vs NSH
- @ CAR
- vs EDM
- vs ARI
- vs SJS
Season Projections
Check out the roster plots and player impact projections for the Blues and the rest of the Central Division here and subscribe to follow more updates for the Blues and from around the league throughout the season.
