With star RFAs Elias Pettersson and Quinn Hughes re-signing just in time to join the Vancouver Canucks for the start of the regular season and a blockbuster offseason trade bringing Conor Garland and Oliver Ekman-Larsson to Vancouver, the Canucks started the 21/22 season looking to return to the playoffs after a disappointing 20/21 campaign. Let’s take a look at their early season results and compare to my full season projections.
Grades
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Record
The Canucks have been mediocre through their first 11 games, with a 0.409 point percentage to show for it. It’s certainly not where they wanted to be as they look to put last season’s disappointment behind them. They have performed below their projected roster strength so far, which has hurt their full season projection. If they improve to perform at their projected roster strength the rest of the season, they now look like they’ll be in a battle with the Kings and Ducks at the bottom of the Pacific Division.
Even Strength Offense
The Canucks 5v5 offense has been anemic to start the season. Generating a measly 1.83 xGF/60, good for 30th in the NHL, simply isn’t going to get it done. Their finishing has been okay, as they have scored at a rate slightly higher than expected. Yet their goals for rate is well below their projection due to the lack of chances.
Individually, Conor Garland has made a strong initial impression in Vancouver. He leads the Canucks in 5v5 point rate, while Justin Dowling and Bo Horvat are the 5v5 goal rate leaders. Elias Pettersson and Brock Boeser have had much slower starts, sitting well below their projected point rates, as has newly acquired defenseman Oliver Ekman-Larsson. While it’s not time to panic yet, we are now getting far enough into the season that their prolonged slumps are cause for concern.
Even Strength Defense
The Canucks have been average defensively, with their expected goals against rate sitting near the middle of league rankings. Their goaltending has been excellent, helping them bring their actual goals against rate into the top 5 league wide.
Looking at the skater’s individual on-ice xGA/60, it’s encouraging to see a number of the Canuck’s top 6 forwards among the team leaders defensively, with Nils Hoglander, Brock Boeser, and Bo Horvat appearing in the top five forwards. Ekman-Larsson and Tyler Myers have had strong starts to the season defensively, however the bottom pair has been less sound as we see Vancouver’s depth defensemen with higher than projected expected goals against rates.
Goaltending has been the Canucks biggest strength through the early season. Thatcher Demko has been in top form to start the season and Jaroslav Halak has been solid when called upon. Both have excellent goals saved above expected rates so far, which has kept the Canucks in games while their offense has struggled.
Powerplay
The Canucks powerplay has struggled along with their even strength offense. While their expected goals rate has been a bit stronger, sitting in the middle third of the league, finishing has been poor and they sit 29th overall in goals for rate. With the offensive talent on the roster, it seems like a matter of time before their powerplay finds some goals.
Penalty Kill
The Canucks penalty kill has been poor through the first 11 games of the season. They rank 30th in 4v5 xGA/60 and goaltending has been unable to hold the fort. The result is a 29th ranked GA/60 at 4v5. The penalty kill needs to improve if the Canucks hope to get back into the playoff race.
Lineup Notes
Justin Dowling and Matthew Highmore have both landed on the IR with undisclosed injuries. Both skaters were off to good starts to their seasons. The Canucks will hope for similar results from their replacements in the bottom six, where Juho Lammikko and Justin Bailey have slotted into the lineup after the injuries.
Brock Boeser started the season on the IR with an undisclosed injury that may be factoring into his slow start. With 8 games played since returning to the lineup, we should see Boeser round into form soon. One has to wonder if Elias Pettersson’s slow start is also injury related due to the wrist injury he sustained last season. The Canucks desperately need a return to form from both players to jumpstart their offense.
Up Next
- vs DAL
- vs ANA
- @ COL
- @ VGK
- @ ANA
Season Projections
Check out the roster plots and player impact projections for the Canucks and the rest of the Pacific Division here and subscribe to follow more updates for the Canucks and around the league throughout the season.
