2021-2022 Season Projections
For all my season previews, we’ll be utilizing my 2021-2022 team and player projections. You can find much more background on these models here, along with more on assessing value of contracts here. Today, we head to Buffalo to preview the Sabres.
2021 Offseason
The rumor mill was churning all summer with speculation that Jack Eichel would be traded following an apparent rift with Sabres’ management over his neck injury. Up to this point, Eichel remains a Sabre and it’s doesn’t appear as though he will be ready for the start of the season. The Sabres did trade their other coveted center, Sam Reinhart, to Florida and they were able to move Rasmus Ristolainen to Philadelphia.
2021-2022 Season Preview
Roster Strength
I’ve excluded Eichel from the Sabres’ projected lineup for the preview, assuming he will start the year on LTIR if he stays in Buffalo. With Eichel on the sidelines, the Sabres have a massive lack of talent in the top six. The bottom six compares better to the rest of the league, but is still sub-par. We see a similar pattern on defense, with the top pair looking the weakest relative to other teams in the league.
Forwards
With Jack Eichel out of the lineup, Jeff Skinner and Vinnie Hinostroza are Buffalo’s top forwards. They both project as borderline 2nd/3rd line forwards and we can see that Buffalo’s lack of depth starts at the top of the lineup. With three players projecting negative impact above replacement, there may be opportunity for the Sabres to bring up prospects or add via waivers throughout the season. If Eichel ends up staying in Buffalo, he is by far the Sabres top forwards and he will bring some much needed offensive punch to the lineup.
Most of the Sabres forwards are clustered around the 25th percentile in terms of projected value from contracts in the 21/22 season, although many are carryovers from prior seasons. The Sabres do appear to be building an improved analytics team and it looks like it’s starting to show, with Hinostroza and Drake Cagguila signing one year deals this offseason that look like good value deals.
Defensemen
The Sabres lost their best defenseman from the 20/21 season (Jake McCabe) to the Bruins in free agency. They traded Rasmus Ristolainen to the Flyers, getting a serviceable defemseman in return in Robert Hagg along with some draft picks. They also added Will Butcher from the Devils. While they lack a true top pair, the entire group looks serviceable with fewer holes than the forward group.
Goaltenders
The Sabres brought in 40 year old Craig Anderson to replace Linus Ullmark, who went to Boston in free agency. It will be a tall for Anderson with the Sabres likely to give up plenty of chances again this season. Dustin Tokarski has a solid stretch of games late last season and will likely battle Aaron Dell for backup duties in training camp.
Team Performance
The Sabres are set to fight for draft lottery odds once again this season, although they may have some competition within the division from the Senators. Buffalo’s lack of depth, particularly among the forward group will make it an uphill battle most nights.
2021-2022 In Season Updates
Make sure to subscribe and check back for updates to the 2021-2022 season projections throughout the season. Watch for updates and enhancements to the models, updated player projections using 2021-2022 season data, analysis of trades and injuries, and more.
