The dust has settled on this year’s free agent frenzy and we have a new picture of how the 22/23 season is shaping up. Let’s take a look at how the Metropolitan Division teams have fared since my last snapshot (after the draft) as attention shifts to the remaining RFAs.
For the analysis below, we’ll make a few key assumptions. First, we’ll assume that all RFAs will return to their current clubs. Their impact is included in the team projections, however no cap hit is included in the team totals. Obviously, some of each team’s cap space will be required to resign their RFAs so we’ll make note of potential cap headaches where applicable. Second, all UFAs are removed from the rosters. Any resulting holes in the roster have been filled with replacement level players.
Metropolitan Division Projected Standings
If you thought the Metropolitan Division looked crowded at the last update, look again. It’s only gotten tighter through a week of free agency and all eight teams look like they could legitimately challenge for playoff positions based on the current rosters. Let’s take a look at some of the more notable moves made by each team.
Carolina Hurricanes
Change in Projected Standings Points: +2
Change in Division Rank: +1
The Hurricanes made their big moves on the trade market, acquiring Brent Burns from the Sharks and Max Pacioretty from the Golden Knights. Both are getting older but can still contribute in the top half of the lineup. Burns has a projected impact of a 2nd pair defenseman while Max Pacioretty remains as one of the most impactful forwards in the NHL at 5v5.
New Jersey Devils
Change in Projected Standings Points: +2
Change in Division Rank: +1
The Devils continued to build a team that looks ready to burst onto the playoff scene during free agency. The landed one of the summer’s biggest fish in Ondrej Palat on a five year deal, who should complement the Devils explosive young stars. They also strengthened their defensive depth with the addition of Brendan Smith on a low cost deal. A deal with the Pens gave the team another boost, as John Marino joins the defense corps in place of the departed Ty Smith.
Pittsburgh Penguins
Change in Projected Standings Points: -8
Change in Division Rank: -2
The Penguins continued to sign deals to keep the band together in free agency, inking Evgeni Malkin and Kasperi Kapanen to new deals. Those deals may have been fine, but a couple of trades that followed weakened the defense corps as the Penguins shipped out their top 2 rated D-men in projected impact (Mike Matheson and John Marino) for Jeff Petry and Ty Smith.
Columbus Blue Jackets
Change in Projected Standings Points: +2
Change in Division Rank: +2
The Blue Jackets shocked the hockey world by signing Johnny Gaudreau to a 7 year deal. Landing the biggest fish in the UFA pond moves the Jackets up the projected standings. They also signed Erik Gudbranson to a 4 year deal that looks like a significant overpayment.
Washington Capitals
Change in Projected Standings Points: +0
Change in Division Rank: -1
The Capitals made some additions through free agency, although didn’t move the needle on their projected strength when all was said and done. They added Darcy Keumper to take over the reigns in net, along with Dylan Strome, Marcus Johansson and Erik Gustafsson.
Philadelphia Flyers
Change in Projected Standings Points: +0
Change in Division Rank: -1
The Flyers didn’t make any big moves in free agency and their projected strength looks much the same as the prior snapshot as a result. They brought back a known commodity in Justin Braun following last season’s trade deadline departure. They also added some toughness up front in Nicolas Deslauriers. Any gains were offset with the departure of Oskar Lindblom, who was bought out.
New York Islanders
Change in Projected Standings Points: -1
Change in Division Rank: +0
The Islanders re-signed defenseman Sebastian Aho, but we haven’t seen any other moves so far. In true Lou Lamoriello fashion, we’ll probably find out who they’ve signed in September.
New York Rangers
Change in Projected Standings Points: +7
Change in Division Rank: +0
The Rangers have a difficult task ahead if they hope to replicate their success in the 21/22 season. Still parked at the bottom of the Metropolitan Division projection standings, they have closed the gap with the rest of the division. The Rangers most notable additions in free agency were Vincent Trocheck, who will draw into the middle six and Jaroslav Halak who will back up Igor Shesterkin.
More
Want to peruse the player projections behind the team profiles or browse UFA player cards for the addition your favorite team needs? Sign up for an annual membership to get access to all 22/23 team and player projection cards. Plots will be updated through the offseason as the 22/23 rosters take shape and updated to track progress through the season so you can follow along with the changing landscape.
Input data for models from Natural Stat Trick. Contract data from CapFriendly.
