With the initial free agent frenzy now just a fond(?) memory and RFA signings beginning to simmer, I thought it was a good time to do another Atlantic Division snapshot to see how the outlook for the 22/23 season has changed since my last snapshot after the draft.
For the analysis below, we’ll make a few key assumptions. First, we’ll assume that all RFAs will return to their current clubs. Their impact is included in the team projections, however no cap hit is included in the team totals. Obviously, some of each team’s cap space will be required to resign their RFAs so we’ll make note of potential cap headaches where applicable. Second, all UFAs are removed from the rosters. Any resulting holes in the roster have been filled with replacement level players.
Atlantic Division Projected Standings
The Atlantic Division landscape has seen some change since the last snapshot. The Florida Panthers closed the gap with the Bruins at the top of the division and are now the ever-so-slight favorites. Detroit’s strong offseason continued in free agency and they look like a legitimate challenger to the incumbent playoff teams while Ottawa took a step back after some excellent moves at the draft.
Let’s take a close look at some of the more notable signings for each team through the first week of free agency, in order of the current projected standings.
Florida Panthers
Change in Projected Standings Points: +5
Change in Division Rank: +1
The Panthers didn’t have a lot of cap space heading into free agency and their signings reflected that. They bolstered their depth, with additions like Colin White and Nick Cousins up front and Marc Staal on defense. White brings a second line impact, although it’s easy to see him slotting in on the 3rd line on a strong Panthers team. Marc Staal brings a veteran presence on defense and can still contribute provided he isn’t thrust into to large a role.
Boston Bruins
Change in Projected Standings Points: +0
Change in Division Rank: -1
The Bruins continued to essentially stand pat through the free agent frenzy. With Patrice Bergeron’s status for next season still in the air, the Bruins don’t appear to be rushing into any big decisions.
Toronto Maple Leafs
Change in Projected Standings Points: +7
Change in Division Rank: +1
In the last snapshot, the Maple Leafs took a step back as they shipped out their only NHL goaltender. Since then, they’ve filled the holes with Ilya Samsonov signed after he wasn’t qualified by the Capitals and Matt Murray coming over from Ottawa via trade. Both goalies look like backups in the model, however it’s a big step up from the two replacement level plugs that were there in the last update and playing behind a strong team in Toronto may have some additional team effects the model hasn’t anticipated.
Tampa Bay Lightning
Change in Projected Standings Points: +0
Change in Division Rank: -1
The Lightning didn’t have a lot of cap room to maneuver in free agency and their big moves looked further ahead. Mikhael Sergachev, Anthony Cirelli and Erik Cernak all signs 8 year extensions that will kick in for the 23/24 season. As for additions for the 22/23 season, the Lightning brought in a few depth players like Vladislav Namestnikov and Ian Cole which didn’t move the needle on their projected roster strength.
Detroit Red Wings
Change in Projected Standings Points: +7
Change in Division Rank: +1
The Red Wings continued their excellent offseason in free agency. Steve Yzerman has clearly decided it’s time to start pulling out of the rebuild and added some capable pieces to the middle of his lineup. Andrew Copp and David Perron help build up the forward depth, while Ben Chiarot and Mark Pysyk improve the defense depth. Detroits young stars are still left as the core pieces driving the team and the new additions look like they’ll help the team challenge for a playoff spot.
Montreal Canadiens
Change in Projected Standings Points: +15
Change in Division Rank: +1
The Habs added a few depth pieces through free agency signings, but their biggest move was the trade with Pittsburgh that saw Jeff Petry head to the Pens and Mike Mathson come the other way. It looks like a masterful trade by Kent Hughes based on the model projections as Matheson’s projection for next season is a strong top pair defenseman. It’s probably not enough to get them into the playoff picture but improves their outlook in the model substantially.
Ottawa Senators
Change in Projected Standings Points: -7
Change in Division Rank: -2
The Senators started the offseason on the right foot, making some shrewd moves during the draft. Unfortunately that success doesn’t seem to have carried over into free agency. They did land Claude Giroux, however he’s into his mid 30s and the model projection for next season is a middle six forward. They also made a goaltender trade with the Wild, shipping out Filip Gustavsson for Cam Talbot. While Talbot is more of a proven commodity at the NHL level, the model wasn’t a fan of the swap.
Buffalo Sabres
Change in Projected Standings Points: +7
Change in Division Rank: +0
The Sabres were relatively quiet in free agency. They added Eric Comrie, who may get a chance to be an NHL starter and Ilya Lyubushkin fills one of the holes on defense. The Sabres still rank as the 32nd rated team and it looks likely they’re aiming to take their chances in the 22/23 draft lottery.
More Plots
Want to peruse the player projections behind the team profiles or browse UFA player cards for the addition your favorite team needs? Sign up for an annual membership to get access to all 22/23 team and player projection cards. Plots will be updated through the offseason as the 22/23 rosters take shape and updated to track progress through the season so you can follow along with the changing landscape.
Input data for models from Natural Stat Trick. Contract data from CapFriendly.
