In the last Central Division Snapshot, I looked at how each team stacked up as free agency approached. With the frenzy now complete and most of this summers UFAs already locked in with new teams, let’s take a look at how the landscape changed over the first week of free agency.
For the analysis below, we’ll make a few key assumptions. First, we’ll assume that all RFAs will return to their current clubs. Their impact is included in the team projections, however no cap hit is included in the team totals. Obviously, some of each team’s cap space will be required to resign their RFAs so we’ll make note of potential cap headaches where applicable. Second, all UFAs are removed from the rosters. Any resulting holes in the roster have been filled with replacement level players.
Central Division Projected Standings
Much has changed in the Central Division in the course of a week. The Colorado Avalanche, our previous leaders ahead of free agency have fallen into 3rd spot in the division. The Minnesota Wild are the new top dog, while the Nashville Predators have also made gains at the top of the division. Things have tightened up behind the Avs, with the exception of the Chicago Blackhawks.
Let’s take a closer look at each team and they key moves they made since the last snapshot.
Minnesota Wild
Change in Projected Standings Points: +6
Change in Division Rank: +1
The Wild were up against the cap heading into free agency, despite sending Kevin Fiala to the Kings. They weren’t able to add any big cap hits during free agency, but they found a trade that boosted their team rating. With Marc-Andre Fleury already signed, the Wild sent Cam Talbot to the Ottawa Senators in exchange for Filip Gustavsson. The model likes what it’s seen out of Gustavsson, although there should be a healthy dose of skepticism to go along with it given the very small sample size of NHL action available for input.
Nashville Predators
Change in Projected Standings Points: +12
Change in Division Rank: +3
The last snapshot just missed the Filip Forsberg extension and the Predators rating took a substantial drop after the Ryan McDonagh trade. The script has flipped since then, with the Preds making big gains to their projected team strength in free agency. Extending Filip Forsberg with a long term deal was the biggest win as it brings back Nashvilles only elite forward. They also added Kevin Lankinen to back up Juuse Saros and landed Nino Niederreiter earlier today. With some additional depth signings, the Preds have put together a deep team.
Colorado Avalanche
Change in Projected Standings Points: -3
Change in Division Rank: -2
The Avalanche extended playoff breakout star Valeri Nichushkin to a long term contract just prior to the start of free agency. After the frenzy started, they brought back a few depth pieces from last years championship team in Darren Helm and Josh Manson. They also locked up RFA Arturri Lehkonen who could be a key piece in the Avs top 6 for years to come. With Lehkonen already on the prior roster profile as an RFA, the model didn’t see any big changes to Colorado’s overall strength since the last snapshot.
Dallas Stars
Change in Projected Standings Points: +7
Change in Division Rank: +2
The Stars big addition in free agency was Mason Marchment. After a breakout season with the Panthers, Marchment earned a 4 x $4.5M contract on the open market. He brings a strong offensive impact, which the Stars were desperately in need of. He’s likely to see a larger role in Dallas than he had with the Panthers last season and the big question will be if he can maintain that impact while moving up the depth chart.
St Louis Blues
Change in Projected Standings Points: +1
Change in Division Rank: -2
It was status quo for the Blues ahead of free agency and not much has changed after free agency either. Their biggest signing was an 8 year, $65M extension for Robert Thomas that will kick in for the 23/24 season. On the UFA market, they signed some depth players including Nick Leddy, Noel Acciari and Thomas Greiss.
Winnipeg Jets
Change in Projected Standings Points: +2
Change in Division Rank: -2
After rumors of imminent change swirled around Winnipeg in the early offseason, it’s been an even quieter offseason than in St Louis. The Jets big UFA signing was David Rittich, who should be a capable backup for Connor Hellebuyck.
Arizona Coyotes
Change in Projected Standings Points: +12
Change in Division Rank: +1
The Coyotes continued to pile up draft capital as free agency opened, completing a trade with the Rangers to take Patrick Nemeth along with some draft picks in exchange for a prospect. They also had a pile of holes to fill in their roster, and doing so is the biggest reason for their improvement since the last snapshot. Veterans like Troy Stecher, Nick Bjugstad, and Josh Brown aren’t going to help them leapfrog many teams in the projected standings, but they did improve by adding some NHL calibre players.
Chicago Blackhawks
Change in Projected Standings Points: +3
Change in Division Rank: -1
If the Blackhawks plan is to tank the 22/23 season, it’s going well so far. They plugged a few of their roster holes up front in free agency adding Max Domi, Andreas Athanasiou and Colin Blackwell but did so without improving the team much. They’ve fallen into clear possession of last in the Central projections and are closing in on the bottom of the NHL. If tanking isn’t the plan, then things aren’t going so swimmingly.
More Plots
Want to peruse the player projections behind the team profiles or browse UFA player cards for the addition your favorite team needs? Sign up for an annual membership to get access to all 22/23 team and player projection cards. Plots will be updated through the offseason as the 22/23 rosters take shape and updated to track progress through the season so you can follow along with the changing landscape.
Input data for models from Natural Stat Trick. Contract data from CapFriendly.
