With the draft a not-so-distant memory, teams are readying themselves for the free agent frenzy that is now just a few days away. Let’s take a look at how teams have repositioned themselves since the initial Central Division Snapshot of the offseason. We’ll include all roster transactions made up to the end of the draft.
For the analysis below, we’ll make a few key assumptions. First, we’ll assume that all RFAs will return to their current clubs. Their impact is included in the team projections, however no cap hit is included in the team totals. Obviously, some of each team’s cap space will be required to resign their RFAs so we’ll make note of potential cap headaches where applicable. Second, all UFAs are removed from the rosters. Any resulting holes in the roster have been filled with replacement level players.
Central Division Projected Standings
The Avalanche have grabbed a clear lead in the projected standings, with the Wild remaining the second clear favorite. A tight group of four teams trails the leaders with Chicago and Arizona well behind. Let’s take a closer look at each team, with their roster profile from the previous snapshot included alongside the current one for comparison.
Colorado Avalanche
Change in Projected Standings Points: +3
Change in Division Rank: +0
The Avalanche seem to be unwilling to spend big money on goaltenders. After watching Philip Grubauer walk to Seattle last offseason, they had pending UFA Darcy Kuemper on the roster going into the 2022 offseason. Rather than extend him, the Avs traded for RFA Alexandar Georgiev who will presumably come in with a lower cap hit. It gives the Avalanche a tandem of Pavel Francouz and Georgiev who, although not big names, look like they’ll give Colorado solid goaltending next season.
Minnesota Wild
Change in Projected Standings Points: +0
Change in Division Rank: +0
Goaltending was the weak point in the Wild roster when we looked at it previously. Minnesota also faces a cap crunch with the brunt of the Zach Parise and Ryan Suter buyouts hitting the books next season. That cap crunch manifested a trade of RFA Kevin Fiala to the Kings and the Wild chose to spend their available cap space on a proven goaltender in Marc-Andre Fleury.
With a roster of 20 players now eating over $81M in cap space, the Wild roster strength seems unlikely to see any big changes prior to puck drop on opening night.
St Louis Blues
Change in Projected Standings Points: +0
Change in Division Rank: +0
It’s been status quo for the Blues so far in the 2022 offseason. As we noted in the last snapshot, it doesn’t leave them much room to improve through the free agency period unless they can move out an inefficient contract or two.
Winnipeg Jets
Change in Projected Standings Points: +0
Change in Division Rank: +0
Ditto for the Winnipeg Jets. After the rumor mill spun wildly about the Jets possibly making changes to their core this offseason, nothing has happened so far.
Nashville Predators
Change in Projected Standings Points: -7
Change in Division Rank: -2
Note: This snapshot is taken at the end of the draft, therefore does not cover the Predators extension with Filip Forsberg earlier today. We’ll catch Forsberg’s impact in the next update.
We noted the Predators looked like they had potential to catch the Wild with a good offseason. After their first notable move, that may be in question. The Predators took Ryan McDonagh and his nearly $7M cap hit off of the Lightning’s hands, sending Philippe Myers the other way. While McDonagh has been an important piece for the Lightning over the past few seasons, he’s now 33. There is significant risk of age related decline creeping into McDonagh’s game and the big cap hit is already a burden. The Preds need to be more prudent with their cap space.
Dallas Stars
Change in Projected Standings Points: -2
Change in Division Rank: +0
The Stars signed Scott Wedgewood to a one year extension. He looks likely to start the season as Jake Oettinger’s backup.
Chicago Blackhawks
Change in Projected Standings Points: +3
Change in Division Rank: +0
The Blackhawks sent a message at the draft: they’re all in on Connor Bedard. Yes, their projected standings points are up since the last snapshot. It’s the way they got there that’s important. First, they jettisoned their highest impact forward, Alex DeBrincat, to Ottawa. Then 21 year old Kirby Dach to Montreal. Then they took Petr Mrazek and his contract off the Maple Leafs hands. By the end of it, they had 3 first round picks instead of none and a goaltender that can man the fort next season.
Arizona Coyotes
Change in Projected Standings Points: +0
Change in Division Rank: +0
The Coyotes also sent a message during the draft. They are still open for business when it comes to taking on inefficient contracts in exchange for draft capital. The Coyotes added Zack Kassian during the draft in exchange for some additional future picks. If the Blackhawks want top odds of landing the number one pick in next year’s draft, they’re going to have to go through Arizona.
More Plots
Want to peruse the player projections behind the team profiles or browse UFA player cards for the addition your favorite team needs? Sign up for an annual membership to get access to all 22/23 team and player projection cards. Plots will be updated through the offseason as the 22/23 rosters take shape and updated to track progress through the season so you can follow along with the changing landscape.
Input data for models from Natural Stat Trick. Contract data from CapFriendly.
