Today, it’s the third and final installment of our mid-season power rankings as we get to the top 10. If you missed the first two segments, you can find them here:
Once again, a reminder that we’re using projected point percentage (Team Strength on the plots) as our metric to rank the teams. We’re ranking future projected team performance, ignoring standings points banked through the first half of the season.
Now, a look at the top 10 teams, (at least on paper…)
#10 – Vegas Golden Knights
A season after missing the playoffs for the first time in their history, the Vegas Golden Knights are back at the top of the Pacific Division standings. Looking at their roster profile, it’s no surprise. The Knights are a deep, balanced team with difference makers at the top of the lineup. Goaltending was the big concern coming into the season, which Logan Thompson has resolved with a strong rookie campaign.
#9 – Colorado Avalanche
The Colorado Avalanche are in a pitched battle for a wild card position at the midway point of the season. They’ve been banged up in a big way through the first half though and their roster profile gives us an indication of what to expect when they are healthy. Another offseason goaltending change has paid off in spades so far, with Alexandar Georgiev playing very well so far under a very reasonable cap hit. Their forward depth isn’t quite what it was last season, but the Avs look fully capable of making some noise as they get healthy bodies back in the lineup.
#8 – Boston Bruins
The Boston Bruins are the class of the NHL at the halfway point of the regular season. They’ve been nearly unbeatable this season and their roster profile gives some indication why. A combination of elite defense and elite goaltending gives them a strong foundation, such that even an slightly above average offensive ranking leads to dominant two-way play. Linus Ullmark has been lights out and some downward regression in goaltending results wouldn’t be a surprise but the Bruins will be a tough out even it that happens.
#7 – Toronto Maple Leafs
The Toronto Maple Leafs have been one of the NHL’s best regular season teams over the past few years and this season is no exception. After a rough patch early in the season, the Leafs have found their groove and are tearing up the NHL once again. Led by some of the most dynamic players in the league, the Leafs rank as one of the elite offensive teams and one of the elite defensive teams. If there’s a weakness, it’s in goal. Matt Murray and Ilya Samsonov have held the fort adequately thus far and the Leafs will need that to continue.
#6 – Calgary Flames
Based on the current standings, it’s a surprise to see the Calgary Flames land at #6 on the list. They’re the top rated team in the Western Conference yet are on the playoff bubble. A paltry 3 wins in 12 trips to extra time is part of the reason. After an offseason of change, the Flames haven’t quite been able to put it all together this season. They have the pieces though, and are a team to keep an eye on the second half.
#5 – Carolina Hurricanes
The Carolina Hurricanes land at #5 on our list, with a strong roster led by an elite defense corps. They sit atop the Metropolitan Division standings and got there without Max Pacioretty, who has just recently made his Hurricanes debut. The Canes are relentless and look ready to challenge for the franchise’s second Stanley Cup.
#4 – Pittsburgh Penguins
The Pittsburgh Penguins elected to bring back both Kris Letang and Evgeni Malkin in the offseason to take another run at a cup alongside Sidney Crosby. The decision appears to have been a good one half a season later. The Penguins have been streaky this season, but they’ve banked enough points to be in the playoff race and have a strong, well-rounded roster.
#3 – Washington Capitals
All eyes were on Alex Ovechkin earlier in the season as he passed Gordie Howe for 2nd on the all-time NHL goals list. The Washington Capitals have quietly kept themselves in the playoff race as well, despite starting the season with an injury depleted roster. With Tom Wilson and Nick Backstrom back in the lineup, the Capitals look ready to push for a higher seed in the second half.
#2 – New Jersey Devils
The New Jersey Devils were the talk of the NHL out of the gate as they racked up wins at a blistering pace. They’ve come back to earth a bit after hitting a rough patch but are still positioned near the top of the Metropolitan Division. Their roster profile shows an elite team and there’s every reason to believe they can challenge the Hurricanes for top spot in the Metro through the second half.
#1 – Florida Panthers
Yikes! Panthers fans, this one stings. The Florida Panthers are the top rated team based on predicted point percentage, driven by an elite offense and forward group. The blue line could stand an upgrade, but it’s good enough to see them rate at or above average in nearly every category. Yet the Panthers sit 6 points out of a playoff spot. There isn’t anything that jumps out immediately at the macro level to explain their struggles this season either. They’ve dug themselves a hole but if things start to click in the second half, the Panthers could be dangerous late in the season.
