The free agent frenzy is now in the rearview mirror. A majority of this year’s crop of unrestricted free agents have found home for next season and RFA season is now upon us. Let’s take a look at how the Pacific Division landscape has changed since my last snapshot prior to the opening of free agency.
For the analysis below, we’ll make a few key assumptions. First, we’ll assume that all RFAs will return to their current clubs. Their impact is included in the team projections, however no cap hit is included in the team totals. Obviously, some of their team’s cap space will be required to resign these players so we’ll make note of potential cap headaches where applicable. Second, all UFAs are removed from the rosters. Any resulting holes in the roster have been filled with replacement level players.
Pacific Division Projected Standings
The Golden Knights remain the team to beat in the Pacific Division. The Canucks have closed the gap with the Oilers and Flames and look like they could contend for a playoff spot. The remaining four teams continue to lag significantly.
Let’s take a closer look at each team’s changes since the Pacific Division snapshot before free agency opened. I’ve included the current roster profile alongside the one from the previous update for comparison.
Vegas Golden Knights
Change in Projected Standings Points: +1
Change in Division Rank: +0
The Golden Knights biggest signing through the first week of free agency was to bring back Reilly Smith on a 3 year deal. At a $5M cap hit, it’s a bit of an overpay for a second line forward. Already up against the cap, the Knights had to dump some salary to fit Smith in and they did so by trading Max Pacioretty and his $7M cap hit to the Hurricanes along with Dylan Coughlan for future considerations. After the dust settled, the model sees the Golden Knights as roughly the same strength.
Edmonton Oilers
Change in Projected Standings Points: +1
Change in Division Rank: +0
The Oilers landed one of the big goaltending free agents, getting Jack Campbell on a 5 x $5M deal. He replaced Mike Smith as the starter on the depth chart, who is expected to spend next season on LTIR. The Oilers extended Evander Kane with a 4 year deal on the eve of free agency, bringing back a top 6 goal-scoring threat to ride shotgun with Connor McDavid. The Oilers also made a few depth additions, including Brett Kulak, Mattias Janmark, and Greg McKegg.
Calgary Flames
Change in Projected Standings Points: +1
Change in Division Rank: +0
The Flames were relatively quiet in free agency, with the return of Nikita Zadorov their most notable signing and Kevin Rooney being their most significant external addition. The Flames most notable transaction was the one they didn’t make as Johnny Gaudreau elected to test the market and leave Calgary. The Flames won’t have time to let Gaudreau’s departure sink in as attention turns to RFA Matthew Tkachuk, who has reportedly informed the team that he does not intend to sign in Calgary long term.
Vancouver Canucks
Change in Projected Standings Points: +4
Change in Division Rank: +0
The Canucks landed Ilya Mikheyev in free agency, who became a cap casualty in Toronto. Mikheyev arrives in Vancouver with a projected top line impact, although achieved in more of a second line role. Regardless, he bolsters the Canucks top six. Vancouver also made a handful of depth signings help fill out their roster, including Colin Delia and Curtis Lazar.
San Jose Sharks
Change in Projected Standings Points: +1
Change in Division Rank: +0
The Sharks biggest move during free agency may have actually been a trade. San Jose sent Brent Burns to the Hurricanes in a multi-player deal, shedding his $8M cap hit in the process. It’s a big improvement for a team that was up against the cap despite being nowhere near contending status. On the free agent market, their most notable addition was Oskar Lindblom who became a UFA after a buyout in Philadelphia. Lindblom brings a second line projected impact and looks like a good value signing.
Los Angeles Kings
Change in Projected Standings Points: +0
Change in Division Rank: +0
The Kings made their big splash ahead of free agency with the acquisition of Kevin Fiala and were relatively quiet in free agency. Their focus seemed to be mainly on signing RFAs, including Adrian Kempe who had a breakout season offensively last year. L.A. also brought back UFA Alex Edler.
Anaheim Ducks
Change in Projected Standings Points: +2
Change in Division Rank: +1
The Ducks made a couple of significant free agent acquisitions in Ryan Strome and Frank Vatrano. They both bring projected top line impact next season, although Vatrano’s has been achieved in more of a middle six role in recent seasons. The Strome deal looks like a bit of an overpay, while Vatrano looks like excellent value. They would have made larger gains in their projected roster strength, however, not qualifying RFAs Sam Steel and Sonny Milano negated some of the improvement.
Seattle Kraken
Change in Projected Standings Points: -1
Change in Division Rank: -1
The Kraken landed Andre Burakovsky on a 5 x $5.5M deal, which might be one of the best deals of 2022 free agency. Burakovsky has a very strong project impact, which should help Seattle’s top six. The gains from signing Burakovsky were negated by the Kraken’s decision not to quality RFAs Haydn Fleury, Ryan Donato, and Daniel Sprong.
More
Want to peruse the player projections behind the team profiles or browse player cards for more of the new free agent signings? Sign up for an annual membership to get access to all 22/23 team and player projection cards. Plots will be updated through the offseason as the 22/23 rosters take shape and updated to track progress through the season so you can follow along with the changing landscape.
Input data for models from Natural Stat Trick. Contract data from CapFriendly.
