There were a few contract extensions signed over the past week, along with a free agent signing for the current season. Let’s take a look at the most notable moves in chronological order.
For more on the models and the evaluation methods used in this post, check out these posts/pages:
- About the Tools – Provides a general overview of how the models work and a description of the plots seen on the team pages.
- Player Value: Part 1 (Player Impact), Part 2 (Other Factors for Players), Part 3 (Prospects and Picks).
- Determining Player Types – Describes the method used to group players by similar player types.
- 21/22 Season Projections – Main page for the 21/22 season projections with links to the team pages with greater detail.
- 22/23 Models – Detail on the improvements to the models for the 22/23 season
- 22/23 Season Projections – Main page for the 22/23 season projections. Updates will be made periodically as more 21/22 season data becomes available.
Jeff Carter – Pittsburgh Penguins – Extension
Jeff Carter has been an excellent fit in Pittsburgh since being acquired at last year’s trade deadline. He’s performing above his 21/22 projection through the first half of the season and it’s helped put his initial projection for the 22/23 season as a first line elite goalscoring forward. There doesn’t appear to be a big risk of a major drop in production either, with Carter shooting a very sustainable 9% at 5v5 this season.
The market rate for forwards of Carter’s impact is currently nearly $1M below the projected player value after two years of a flat cap. The Penguins managed even better value with this deal as they locked up Carter at roughly $1M below the market rate, perhaps with the 2 year term helping bring the AAV down.
- Extension Cap Hit: $3.125M
- Length: 2 years
- UFA Market Rate: $4.23M
- 22/23 Projected Impact: 1st Line Elite Goalscoring Forward
- 22/23 Projected Value: $5.71M
Evander Kane – Edmonton Oilers – Signing
Following a dismal stretch of hockey that saw the Oilers in a tailspin, Edmonton signed newly minted free agent Evander Kane to a one year deal. Kane joins the Oilers with obvious on-ice talent but brings off-ice baggage with it. The Oilers get a high-end second line forward that adds to an already formidable top six group. With other more apparent weaknesses in the team roster strength, the model wasn’t fond of this move and gave the Oilers only a very slight bump in projected point percentage.
Nick Holden – Ottawa Senators – Extension
Nick Holden came into the 21/22 season with a projected impact of a 3rd pair defensemen. He’s struggled along with the Senators through the first half of the season, with his offensive output trending below the projections. His defensive impact has taken a hit, with his on-ice defensive metrics looking more like they did with the Avs and Rangers earlier in his career than in his more recent stops in Boston and Vegas.
For the 22/23 season, the initial projection for Holden is a 3rd pair depth defenseman. The Senators brought him back for a single season at a very reasonable cap hit. While there are certainly more cost effective options around the league for the bottom pair, there are also plenty of 3rd pair defensemen making very healthy salaries.
- Extension Cap Hit: $1.3M
- Length: 1 year
- UFA Market Rate: $3.0M
- 22/23 Projected Impact: 3rd Pair Depth Defenseman
- 22/23 Projected Value: $3.6M
Brayden McNabb – Vegas Golden Knights – Extension
The Golden Knights re-upped with Brayden McNabb, keeping him in Vegas for another 3 seasons. McNabb has been a steady defensive presence this season, trending near his projected impact. The deal lands very close to the current market rate for UFA defenseman, which is below the overall value.
Where this deal gets interesting is looking at the Knights’ complete cap situation for next season. It’s already a question mark how they plan to get Jack Eichel into the lineup and stay under the cap this season and the cap crunch only gets worse from there. Reilly Smith and Mattias Janmark are both pending UFAs and Vegas has a handful of pending RFAs as well, including Nicolas Hague and Nicolas Roy.
- Extension Cap Hit: $2.85M
- Length: 3 years
- UFA Market Rate: $2.89M
- 22/23 Projected Impact: 3rd Pair Defensive Defenseman
- 22/23 Projected Value: $3.65M
Jordan Greenway – Minnesota Wild – Extension
Jordan Greenway has an interesting performance relative to the 21/22 projection through the first half of the season. His defensive impact has been stout and slightly better than projected. Offensively, there’s a lot more going on. His 5v5 goals rate is below projection, suffering from a career low shooting percentage that’s likely to regress upward. His 5v5 assists have skewed toward secondary assists which provide a bit of a red flag that he’s not directly contributing on his line.
With the model looking at 3 seasons of data for the 22/23 projections, the idiosyncrasies in this season’s data seem to be less of a concern. His projected impact for next season is a 1st Line Two-way Goalscoring Forward and the Wild look like they will get good value from this extension.
- Extension Cap Hit: $3M
- Length: 3 years
- UFA Market Rate: $4.5M
- 22/23 Projected Impact: 3rd Pair Defensive Defenseman
- 22/23 Projected Value: $5.17M
Input data for the models from Natural Stat Trick. Contract data from CapFriendly. Rookie projections based on NHLe from Hockey Prospecting.
