The Edmonton Oilers are in free fall and rumors are swirling about what needs to be done to right the ship. Meanwhile in Montreal, the Canadiens started their free fall in October and now find themselves with a new GM and what looks like a lost season. Let’s look at a trade proposal that could help the Oilers contend this season and help the Canadiens start a rebuild.
I recently put together armchair GM plans for both teams that provide some additional context to the current state of both teams. You can check them out here:
Armchair GM: Edmonton Oilers (Dec 2021)
Armchair GM: Montreal Canadiens (Dec 2021)
The Proposal
Date: Jan 7, 2021
To Edmonton Oilers:
- Jake Allen (2 years remaining @ $2.875M cap hit, UFA on expiry, age 31)
To Montreal Canadiens
- Mikko Koskinen (1 years remaining @ $4.5M cap hit, M-NTC, UFA on expiry, age 33)
- Rights to Xavier Bourgault (age 19, QMJHL)
- 2022 5th Round Pick
The Oilers are in a tight cap situation, with less than $1M in projected deadline cap space according to CapFriendly. The Canadiens have more wiggle room, with projected deadline cap space over $7M. The Oilers get a legitimate starting goaltender and gain over $1.5M in cap space, while the Habs get a solid forward prospect that fits their rebuild timeline and a draft pick. The proposed deal comes with a big asterisk, however, as Koskinen has a modified no trade clause with a 15 team no trade list. Either the Habs aren’t on the list or Koskinen would have to waive the M-NTC.
| To EDM | To MTL | |
| Jake Allen – Player Impact | $3,751,000 | – |
| Jake Allen – Contract Expiry (UFA) | $0 | – |
| Jake Allen – Opportunity Cost | $876,000 | – |
| Mikko Koskinen – Player Impact | – | $3,304,000 |
| Mikko Koskinen – Contract Expiry (UFA) | – | $0 |
| Mikko Koskinen – Opportunity Cost | – | -$1,196,000 |
| Rights to Xavier Bourgault – Forward Prospect Value | – | $2,019,100 |
| 2022 5th Round Pick | – | $363,740 |
| Total Value | $4,627,000 | $4,490,840 |
For more on how the trade values are determined, check out the series on assessing player and prospect value. You can find them here: Part 1 (Player Impact), Part 2 (Other Factors for Players), Part 3 (Prospects and Picks).
2021-2022 Performance
Jake Allen
Jake Allen has shouldered the starter’s load in Montreal this season with the absence of Carey Price. He similarly carried the load for a stretch last season while Price was injured and he’s proven that he can handle a starter’s workload. Allen actually had a higher projected impact than Price coming into the season and his results so far have been better than projected. He would be a solid upgrade in goal for the Oilers, who are near break even in expected goals at 5v5 but have been let down by their goaltending.
Mikko Koskinen
The Oilers’ goaltending has not been good enough this season for a team looking to contend in the playoffs. Koskinen has been the Oiler’s best goaltender, but he’s still performing below his projected impact of a high-end backup. With the timeline for Carey Price to return to action still unclear, Koskinen would likely step into the starter’s net in Montreal.
Xavier Bourgault
Xavier Bourgault is a good center prospect that could fit well with the Canadiens’ rebuild timeline. While the Oilers give up a good prospect, they already have Connor McDavid and Leon Draisatl at center and they have a few other prospects in the system that could help fill out their future center depth. Bourgault is playing for the Shawinigan Cataractes in the QMJHL this season, where he has 42 points in 24 games.
Your Call
If you were sitting in the GM’s chair for one of these teams, would you pull the trigger on this trade?
