The NHL standings are starting to take shape as we approach the quarter mark of the season. Historically, most teams that sit in playoff positions at American Thanksgiving are still there at the end of the season. Yet there are most often a few surprises mixed in. This week, we’ll look for one team in each division that appears most likely to break into the playoff picture over the rest of the season, along with one team that looks most likely to fall out.
Pacific Division
In the Pacific Division, the Flames, Oilers, and Ducks currently hold the three automatic divisional playoff berths. The Golden Knights have been trending upward recently and hold down the first wild card in the Western Conference. So which of the remaining teams might catch one of the top four? The Sharks and Kings have both had strong stretches in the first part of the season, however their overall projected roster strength isn’t terribly strong this season as they continue their rebuilds and they would have to overperform to move up. Likewise, the Canucks are in disarray in the division cellar with a mediocre roster. That leaves us with the Kraken, who have underperformed their projection in dramatic fashion through the first quarter of the season. Their biggest issue has been goaltending. Despite being one of the stingiest teams defensively at 5v5 in terms of expected goals against, their actual goals against rate is among the worst in the league. They aren’t an offensive juggernaut, but they are scoring enough to win a higher percentage of games if their goaltending can get to average. If their goaltending results turn around, they could make a push for a playoff spot.
Which team is most likely to fall out of the playoff picture? The Flames and Oilers have opened up a healthy lead atop the division, making them unlikely candidates to fall all they way out of the picture. That leaves us with the Ducks and the Golden Knights. The Golden Knights are currently at almost exactly at their projected point percentage. With a number of key injuries factoring in, the Golden Knights may be the team on the bubble.
Team Spotlight – Seattle Kraken
The Seattle Kraken have struggled mightily through the first quarter of their inaugural season. Coming into the season, they were the favorites in the model to win the division yet they’ve fallen to fifth in the full season projections after a rough start to the season. Offensively, the Kraken were not expected to be a juggernaut and they sit near the league average in 5v5 GF/60, although it’s slightly below the projection. Defensively, they’ve been excellent at 5v5 as they sit second in the NHL in 5v5 xGA/60 just 0.01 higher than the league leading Bruins. It’s good enough that they would have a positive goal differential at 5v5 with just average goaltending, however the Kraken goaltenders have simply not been good. They simply can’t buy a save at the moment and, despite their strong team defense, sit last the in the league in actual 5v5 goals against rate.
Player Spotlight – Nicolas Roy (VGK)
With injuries landing multiple stars on the sidelines for extended periods in Vegas, it’s been up to the Golden Knights depth players to step up and keep the team within striking distance in the Pacific. Nicolas Roy is one of the players who has stepped up, currently sitting 4th in 5v5 P/60 among Vegas skaters with at least 100 minutes at 5v5 this season. His offensive contributions have been well above his projected numbers. However, his defensive impact has not been as strong, with an on-ice xGA/60 sitting above the 75th percentile. Playing higher up the lineup due to the Golden Knights injury situation, this may be a product of playing against stronger competition.
Central Division
The Wild, Blues and Jets currently hold the three Central Division playoff berths, while the Predators sit in the second wild card position. The Avalanche are close behind, despite a revolving door to the infirmary through the first quarter of the season. They have games in hand over all four teams they are chasing and they hold the second best point percentage in the division, which makes the Avalanche an easy choice as the favorite to move up into a playoff spot in the Central. Based on the current season end projection, they are not only likely to break into the playoff picture but are also favored to win the division.
Which team is most likely to fall out of the playoff picture? While the Jets are off to a good start, the model doesn’t see them as a contender. Their projected point percentage with a full strength roster over the full season is well below the strength of a playoff team. If they trend toward the model’s projected strength for the rest of the season, they could drop out of a playoff position. A mirror image of what we saw with the Kraken in the Pacific, the Jets goaltending has been superb and has shifted their 5v5 GF% from one that would be roughly even with average goaltending into a significant advantage. For the Jets to hang on in the playoff race, they’ll need Connor Hellebuyck to continue to perform at the top of his game.
Team Spotlight – Winnipeg Jets
The Winnipeg Jets are off to a solid start to the 21/22 campaign thanks in large part to the play of Connor Hellebuyck. They sit close to the league median in both 5v5 GF/60 and 5v5 xGA/60, which is also right in line with their projected numbers. With average goaltending, it would be recipe for roughly even results at 5v5 however the Jets have one of the best goaltenders in the business minding their net. Another strong season from Connor Hellebuyck has turned the Jets’ average 5v5 defense into one of the best 5v5 GA/60 in the league.
Player Spotlight – Nazem Kadri
Nazem Kadri has 8 points in his last 10 games, helping the Avalanche start to climb the division ladder of late despite Nathan MacKinnon being sidelined with an injury. Kadri is currently first on the team in 5v5 P/60, sitting among the league leaders. His defensive impact has been a bit worse than projected, however his offensive output has more than made up for it.
Atlantic Division
The Atlantic Division appears to be the least likely to see any change in playoff teams by season’s end as it has divided itself into two tiers early. The strength of the Metropolitan throws a wrinkle in, however, as Metropolitan teams currently hold both wildcard spots in the East. The Panthers, Maple Leafs and Lightning currently own the three divisional berths, while the Bruins are close behind. To that end, the Bruins appear to be the only team with a legitimate chance of breaking into the playoff picture. Whether they break into the top 3 in the Atlantic or into a wildcard spot, they are sitting within striking distance and have a strong lineup.
The three teams sitting at the top of the division all look strong and it’s a difficult task to pick one to falter. With the Panthers’ projected team strength sitting well below the Lightning and Leafs, we’ll go with Florida as the most likely to falter. Their Panthers goaltending has been much better than projected so far and goaltending performance the rest of the way will be key to whether or not they can hold onto their early division lead.
Team Spotlight – Boston Bruins
While the Boston Bruins currently sit outside the playoff picture, they have the makings of a team that could make some noise this season. They’ve struggled a bit offensively relative to projections, but still have a roughly average 5v5 offense. Defensively, they’ve been the stingy team we’ve come to expect. They lead the league in 5v5 xGA/60, however goaltending has hurt their overall 5v5 GA/60 so far. With Tuuka Rask reportedly interested in returning to the Bruins once he recovers from offseason surgery, the Bruins have the look of a team that could climb up the Atlantic standings in the second half of the season.
Player Spotlight – Alex Kerfoot (TOR)
The Maple Leafs have been on the rise recently and Alex Kerfoot has been a big contributor through the first quarter of the season. He’s been a force at 5v5, where he currently leads the team in P/60. While his offensive impact has been much higher than projected, he has continued to be defensively responsible. His on-ice 5v5 xGA sits down near the 25th percentile right near his projected impact.
Metropolitan Division
The Metropolitan Division has been absolute chaos through the first quarter of the season. At one point, all 8 teams had full season point percentage projections above the historical playoff cutoff. Three teams occupying the divisional playoff berths seem to have found a bit of breathing room at the top, so the Hurricanes, Capitals, and Rangers look like good bets to stay in playoff spots. That leaves us with the Blue Jackets and Penguins who sit in the two Eastern wildcard positions as the options for the most likely to fall out. The Penguins have managed to hang with the pack despite a rash of injuries and a significant Covid outbreak. They are slowly getting healthier and, with a healthy roster, their projected strength is among the best in the division. So, despite a decent start to the season, the Blue Jackets are the most likely to fall out of the playoff picture by process of elimination.
Which of the other three teams might push their way into the playoff picture? We have the Islanders, Flyers and Devils to chose from here. The Islanders have been in free fall of late and have recently lost Ryan Pulock and Brock Nelson for significant time with injuries, so they seem like the least likely candidate. The Devils, in contrast, are within striking distance, and have managed to stay there without Jack Hughes for most of the season. With a healthy Hughes expected back soon, the Devils could make an upward move.
Team Spotlight – New Jersey Devils
The Devils have been hanging with the established contenders in a deep Metropolitan Division, despite Jack Hughes being sidelined for most of the season. Through 16 games, their performance sits very close to their projected numbers and their results look sustainable. With Hughes expected back soon, their offense should get a boost.
Player Spotlight – Seth Jarvis (CAR)
With 10 games now under his belt and first year of his ELC kicking in, it looks like Seth Jarvis will be staying in the NHL for the season. Jarvis has looked good to start his NHL career and sits 2nd in the league in 5v5 G/60. He’s shooting over 23% on the season, which is likely to regress, but even scoring at his ixG/60 rate would put him at roughly the league median. Defensively, he hasn’t been a liability as he sits near the league median for 5v5 xGA/60.
Complete Regular Season Projections
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