The Edmonton Oilers charged out of the gate for the 2021-2022 season and were one of four teams in the league to start the season 5-0-0 before taking their first loss of the season at the hands of the Flyers. Let’s take a closer look at the Oilers’ early season results.
Grades
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Record
The Oilers charged out of the gate, going undefeated through their first 5 games. Following a loss to the Flyers in their most recent outing, they now sit with a 5-1-0 record through 6 games and their 0.833 point percentage is tops in the Pacific Division. With a relatively strong projected roster strength, the Oilers’ strong start has solidified their position as one of the favorites in the Pacific Division.
Even Strength Offense
The Oilers even strength offense has been solid to start the season, generating a GF/60 that above their projected rate. Prized offseason addition Zach Hyman has been in the middle of it, along with Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl, and Jesse Puljarvi. While their production has been strong, their xGF/60 is lower and reason to expect the offense may cool off as the season goes on. Many of the Oilers’ top forwards are producing well above their projected rates, to levels that are not likely sustainable. The good new is that the two players performing closer to their projected rates are McDavid and Draisaitl, so while it’s likely that we’ll see production drop from some of the supporting characters as the season sample size gets larger, Edmonton’s two superstars may be able to continue near their current pace.
Even Strength Defense
The Oilers’ defense was largely panned by most analytical models in the offseason. Early indications are that the models were generally correct. The Oilers currently have the 28th ranked 5v5 GA/60, with the 21st ranked 5v5 xGA/60 and mediocre goaltending.
On defense, Evan Bouchard has emerged in the early season as an impactful skater and he leads the Oilers’ defensemen in expected goals against rate. While that’s probably not a surprise to Oiler fans, the fact that Duncan Keith and Cody Ceci are 2nd and 3rd probably is. With the small early season sample size, we can still expect these numbers to change dramatically. Among forwards, we see Ryan Nugent Hopkins with the best defensive impact, while new addition Zach Hyman and youngsters Ryan McLeod and Tyler Bensen also make the top 5.
Goaltending hasn’t helped the Oilers even strength goals against rate with both Mike Smith and Mikko Koskinen performing below their projected goals saved above expected rate so far this season. While they’ve been good enough to help the Oilers to their strong start, they’ll need to be better when the offense cools.
Powerplay
The Oilers’ powerplay has been lights out to start the season, they lead the league with an astronomical 18.51 G/60 at 5v4. While they may be riding some percentage luck at the moment based on their xGA/60 at 11.79, this is a dangerous powerplay. Even if they cool off and score at their current expected rate, their powerplay would be ranked 3rd in the league. While the powerplay has been a huge success so far, it may be masking some of the even strength defensive concerns and opposing teams who can stay out of the box will put themselves in a much better position against the Oilers.
Penalty Kill
Edmonton’s penalty kill has been good to start the season, ranking 7th league-wide for both 4v5 GA/60 and 4v5 xGA/60. It’s a stark contrast from their even strength defensive results, goaltending included, and a larger sample size may be needed to get a better read.
Season Projections
Check out the roster plots and player impact projections for the Oilers and the rest of the Pacific Division here and subscribe to follow more updates for the Oilers and around the league throughout the season.
