The Calgary Flames are doing their best to silence their skeptics over the first few games of the 2021-2022 season. They have so far embraced head coach Darryl Sutter’s brand of hockey and have been rewarded for it so far. Let’s take a deeper look into their season so far.
Grades
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Record
A strong record through 6 games has put the Flames in second position in the Pacific Division early in the season. It’s a promising start for a team with a full season projection that was fourth in the division and it puts them in position to challenge for a wild card spot if they play to their projected point percentage the rest of the way.
Even Strength Offense
The Flames are generating offense at a slightly higher pace than projected. However, with their goal rate exceeding their expected goal rate substantially, it appears that they are riding some percentage luck early in the season. Andrew Mangiapane is off to a blazing hot start, pacing the 5v5 offense early in the season. The Flames will need more offense throughout the forward lineup when Mangiapane inevitably cools off to a more sustainable pace. The defense corps has been involved in the offense, however have yet to score a 5v5 goal.
Even Strength Defense
The Flames stingy defense has contributed to their early season success. With their expected goals against rate very close to the projection, it’s been goaltending causing them to outperform their projection so far.
Defensively, offseason additions Blake Coleman and Tyler Pitlick lead the way among forwards with strong defensive impacts while Dillon Dube and Andrew Mangiapane sit at the other end of the spectrum. Among defensemen, the Flames’ offseason additions have not been as successful. Nikita Zadorov and Erik Gudbranson lead the Flames defensemen with the worst defensive impacts. Oliver Kylington looks like he may have finally cracked the NHL lineup and lead the D-corps with the best defensive impact with Chris Tanev close behind.
Strong goaltending has contributed to the Flames early season defensive success. Jacob Markstrom has been hot to start the season, with very strong goals saved above expected rate, greatly outperforming his projection. Backup Dan Vladar has been good when called up and sports a 2-0-0 record while slightly outperforming his projected goals saved above expected rate.
Powerplay
The Flames powerplay has been hot to start the season, sitting 5th in the league for 5v4 GF/60. While it’s likely to cool off given their much lower xGF/60, their expected goal rate is still in the top 10. If they can continue to generate chances on the powerplay, it should still provide a good offensive impact.
Penalty Kill
The Flames penalty kill has been stingy, allowing a league best xGA/60. Unlike the 5v5 numbers, goaltending has let down the PK with their 4v5 GA/60 sitting 16th in the league despite their stingy expected goals against rate. The Flames have also been dangerous while shorthanded, boasting a 4v5 xGF% of 39.2%.
Season Projections
Check out the roster plots and player impact projections for the Flames and the rest of the Pacific Division here and subscribe to follow more updates for the Flames and around the league throughout the season.
