2021-2022 Regular Season Update: Oct 20

We’re now over a week into the new season and all 32 teams have seen action. Let’s take a look at some of the more significant roster news since my last update on Oct 15 along with updated projections based on the roster updates and actual results through the first week of the season.

Pacific Division

Despite a slow start to the season, the Seattle Kraken continue to lead the full season projections in the Pacific Division. The Kraken are the first team to play five games, getting off to a 1-3-1 start, however all five have been on the road. As they get set for their inaugural regular season home game, we could see them turn the tide over their upcoming four game homestand. The Kraken also had good news on the injury front with Yanni Gourde returning to the lineup earlier than originally expected.

The San Jose Sharks and Edmonton Oilers closed the gap with Seattle in the full season projections with hot starts, both going undefeated in the first week of the season. The Sharks have been without defenseman Nikolai Knyzhov, who brings a top pair impact and expect him to be out for 8-10 weeks. Evander Kane is also out of the lineup, with the NHL announcing a 21 game suspension for breaking covid protocols. The Sharks stated that they will wait until the suspension is up to announce their next move with Kane. With Kane previously excluded from the Sharks full strength roster, I’ve left it unchanged for now.

The Calgary Flames sit fourth in the final projection and have stumbled to a 0-1-1 record out of the gate despite strong underlying numbers in both games. If they stick to the process, we could see their stock rising soon. Also off to a slow start, the Canucks sit fifth in the final projections.

The Anaheim Ducks and Vegas Golden Knights are both have 0.500 records through the first week of the season, sitting fairly close to their projected strength. The Golden Knights also lost Max Pacioretty this week. Out for 6 weeks with a broken foot, he joins Alex Tuch on the IR. Pacioretty’s strong top line forward impact will be missed and will put the Golden Knights depth to the test.

The LA Kings bring up the rear in the Pacific projections. With a highly touted prospect pool, there is plenty of reason for optimism in LA but it hasn’t materialized into wins just yet.

Central Division

The Minnesota Wild and Nashville Predators started the season with nearly identical projections to lead the Central. Very different results through week 1 have made the Wild the early season favorites, with the Wild undefeated through 3 games and the Predators off to a 1-2 start.

Last season’s powerhouse Colorado Avalanche have also struggled out of the gate, although the roster has been in turmoil due to multiple injuries and players on covid protocol. With Nathan MacKinnon now back Devon Toews nearing a return, the Avs could find their groove soon. An injury to backup Pavel Francouz has hurt their current roster strength.

The St Louis Blues lead the teams chasing automatic divisional playoff spots in the projections on the back of a 2-0 start. The Stars, Blackhawks and Jets are also chasing. The Blackhawks are off to a 0-3-1 start, dropping them two spots in the final projections. The Jets also struggled this week, sporting a 0-2-1 record so far, and have lost captain Blake Wheeler to covid protocol. Andrew Copp got the first look in Wheeler’s spot on the top line Tuesday night and comes with similar third line forward impact as Wheeler, although he brings a more defensive presence. The Jets offense takes a bit of a hit in Wheeler’s absence, however their defensive projection improves resulting in a very similar roster strength.

The Arizona Coyotes sit well behind the rest of the division in the season projections and have done nothing to suggest they won’t still be there after 82 games. An 0-2-1 start has them still searching for their first win.

Atlantic Division

The model is a big proponent of the Boston Bruins, who started the season with a huge lead in the Atlantic Division projections. With just one game played, it’s much too early to get an indication if they will actually be that strong.

The initial projections had five teams bunched tightly in positions 2 through 6, including the Toronto Maple Leafs, Detroit Red Wings, Florida Panthers, Tampa Bay Lightning, and Montreal Canadiens. The Leafs, Panthers, and Red Wings all got off to good starts, putting them in the early lead for the battle for the divisional playoff berths.

Lightning superstar Nikita Kucherov left Saturday’s game with an apparent groin injury. While a timetable hasn’t been set for his eventual return pending further evaulation, the Lightning added Kucherov to the LTIR on Tuesday meaning he will miss a minimum of 10 games. One of the most impactful forwards in the league, Kucherov will be missed in Tampa’s forward ranks and the Lightning offense looks significantly less potent with Kucherov on the sidelines.

The Montreal Canadiens have fallen out of the pack over the first week of the season, stumbling to an 0-4-0 start. They need to turn things around quickly if they hope to keep pace in the hunt for the playoffs.

The Buffalo Sabres and Ottawa Senators started the season with very similar projections at the bottom of the Atlantic Division. The Sabres 3-0-0 start has given them the early lead in the final projections. The Sabres have also been without Casey Middelstadt and Henri Jokiharju since the season opener, who are both considered week-to-week. Middelstadt’s impact is that of a fourth line forward and Jokiharju’s is that of a third pair defenseman and the Sabres actually look slightly stronger in the resulting lineup shuffle. Bigger opportunity for Will Butcher, who has a projected impact of a borderline 1st/2nd pair defenseman, is the main reason.

Metropolitan Division

The Metropolitan Division projections were the tightest to start the season, with six teams looking like the could be capable of finding their way to the playoffs and no teams with projections under 0.500. The first week of the season didn’t create much separation.

The Washington Capitals lead the final projections, despite missing Nicklas Backstrom, as they did to start the season. The New York Rangers sit second in the projections, after picking up 5 of 8 points through their first four games. The Rangers did lose Kaapo Kakko to injury on the weekend. He was placed on IR on Sunday, meaning he will miss at least a week of action with an upper body injury. The youngster has a projected impact of a borderline 3rd/4th line forward and had no points through the Rangers first 3 games.

The Pittsburgh Penguins are next, after a strong start without a number of star players. The revolving door to the Penguins infirmary continued to spin this week, with Bryan Rust the latest victim. The timetable for Rust’s return isn’t yet clear but he’ll miss at least a week after being placed on the IR. With Crosby and Malkin both still on the sidelines, the loss of Rust’s top line forward impact will further test the Penguins depth. The good news for the Penguins is that both Jake Guenztel and Zach Aston-Reese have returned following their stints in covid protocol and that defenseman Mike Matheson is expected to make his season debut this week after dealing with a lower body injury sustained during the preseason.

Sitting fourth in the season projections, the Blue Jackets announced that Max Domi will miss 2-4 weeks with a fractured rib. While Columbus will miss Domi’s top line impact, the loss may give highly touted prospects Cole Sillinger and Yegor Chinakov larger opportunities and the Blue Jackets’ roster strength is largely unaffected as a result. With the two rookies untested at the NHL level, the question will be whether they can live up to lofty expectations in larger roles.

The New Jersey Devils and New York Islanders bring up the rear of the pack atop the Metropolitan. The Devils are off to a good start while the Isles have struggled out of the gate.

At the bottom of the division projections, the Carolina Hurricanes and Philadelphia Flyers both had good first weeks, with the Flyers going 1-0-1 and the Canes going 2-0-0. Strong starts by one of both of these teams could close the gap in the projections with the pack and make the Metropolitan even more chaotic.