The regular season has finally arrived and we’ve seen most teams in action with standings points on the line. Let’s a look at some of the more notable roster news through the first few days of the season.
Regular Season Update Notes
Before we jump into the updates, a few quick notes on how the regular season updates will happen.
First, point percentage projections will incorporate actual results. The projected point percentages based on roster strength will be use to forecast future performance. Combined, the actual results and projections will continue to give us projected standings for the end of the season.
Secondly, roster strength will be updated for key injuries and player absences. It’s not worth trying to keep up with day-to-day injuries when we are projecting long-term results since the effect of any player missing one or two games will generally be negligible on season long results. Generally, only players who will be out for at least a week will be considered for a roster strength update. Player impact will also be considered, so the loss of a fourth line winger or bottom pair defensemen will be weighed against the strength of the replacement player and may not be considered unless the injury keeps them out for even longer.
Roster Updates – Oct 12-15
Ottawa Senators – Brady Tkachuk
The Senators finally signed RFA Brady Tkachuk on the day of their regular season opener. Tkachuk’s new deal is 7 years, with an $8.2M cap hit. Tkachuk’s projected impact for the 21/22 season is that of a top line forward, however, it doesn’t quite live up to the cap hit with the projected value below median. However, Tkachuk is just 22 years old and the long term deal locks him up through his prime. There is certainly potential for him to grow into the cap hit later in future seasons.
Seattle Kraken – Yanni Gourde
The Kraken got some good news as the regular season got underway, with Yanni Gourde graduating to a contact jersey indicating he is nearing a return. Originally expected to out until mid-November, it looks like Gourde will be back much sooner giving the Kraken forward contingent a boost. Gourde’s projected impact is that of a top line forward and his return will ripple through the forward lines, improving overall depth.
Tampa Bay Lightning – Zach Bogosian
The Lightning lost defenseman Zach Bogosian to a lower body injury in their season opener that will keep him sidelined for 4-6 weeks. Although playing on the third pair, Bogosian has a projected impact of a second pair defenseman. With Cal Foote already on the IR, the Lightning called up Andrej Sustr to fill in. Sustr’s projected impact is that of a replacement level player and the Lightning’s third pair takes a hit as a result.
Point % Projections – Oct 15
25 teams have seen action in the first 3 days of the regular season. While one or two games don’t have dramatic effect on the final projections after 82 games, they do have a small influence. Of the 7 teams that have played 2 games, the Penguins are off to the best start, picking up 3 points in their first two games, while the Rangers and Canadiens have struggled out of the gate, picking up 1 point and 0 points respectively.
Check out the full set of updated projections here and subscribe to stay tuned to more updates throughout the season.
