We’ve made it to the eve of a new season. The games count starting tomorrow and we have a pretty good picture of each team as we head into the regular season. Let’s take a final look at the projected standings by division before the puck drop on a new season, along with a review of some of the key player absences as the season gets underway.
Before we dive in, a couple of quick notes on this set of projections. The rosters for the final set of preseason projections were updated prior to many of the final roster announcements, so there are a few discrepancies. However, these are generally depth players and have very little impact on the overall projections. I’ll be updating the rosters and projections regularly throughout the season, so these changes will be captured soon. There are also a few injury updates since my final preseason projections were run. We’ll capture any new lengthy absences in the next update as well.
Pacific Division
Calgary Flames – Blake Coleman
The Flames will be without their big offseason acquisition for their opener in Edmonton, with Blake Coleman set to miss one regular season game as part of a suspension from the preseason. Coleman projects as a solid top line forward for the 21/22 season and his addition should help the Flames add another dimension to their attack. While a one game absence is unlikely to impact the Flames success on the season, Flames fans will have to wait a bit longer to see Coleman in action.
Seattle Kraken – Yanni Gourde
Yanni Gourde was one of Seattle’s big acquisitions in the expansion draft. With the projected impact of a top line forward, Gourde looked ready for a larger role than he had in Tampa Bay last season. Gourde was expected to out until mid-November following offseason surgery, but may be ready for a much earlier return after progressing to a non-contact jersey at practice today.
Vegas Golden Knights
The Golden Knights will be missing Alex Tuch for the first few months of the season. Tuch projected impact for the 21/22 season is that of a top line forward and his position further down the lineup shows Vegas’ depth. The Golden Knights’ third line is significantly weaker with Tuch out, however their bottom six is still very competitive.
Division Projections
The Kraken lead the Pacific Division standing projections heading into the regular season on the strength of their overall team depth. The model has the Sharks, Oilers, and Flames trailing the Kraken looking for playoff positions, and the Golden Knights trailing due to poor goaltending projections. With a number of rebuilding teams and teams looking to prove themselves, the Pacific looks ripe with opportunity for a team that can find their groove this season.
Central Division
Chicago Blackhawks – Caleb Jones
The Blackhawks acquired Caleb Jones in the trade that sent Duncan Keith to Edmonton. Jones has a very strong projected impact, looking like a top pair defenseman, albeit based on a small sample of NHL work due to limited playing time in Edmonton. With Jones out until mid-November with an injury sustained during the preseason, the Blackhawks defense takes a bit of a hit for the start of the regular season.
Colorado Avalanche – Devon Toews / Pavel Francouz
The Avalanche are expecting Devon Toews to miss a couple of games to start the season. One of Colorado’s big three defensemen, his absence is noticeable. The Avs will also be without the services of backup Pavel Francouz to start the season, who is expected to miss about a month. Jonas Johansson will likely see backup duty to start the season.
Winnipeg Jets – Mark Scheifele
The Jets will be without the services of Mark Scheifele for their opener, with the forward serving the final game of his suspension from last season’s playoffs. The Jets’ offense takes a bit of a hit with Scheifele out and the Jets bottom six looks significantly weaker with Paul Stastny likely to move up into the top six.
Division Standings
The Predators and Wild head the Central Division projections. The model has the Avalanche leading a group of 5 teams chasing the final divisional playoff berth, while the Coyotes lag far behind. Competition for playoff positions could be fierce and seven of the eight teams in the division have reason to think they could be in the hunt.
Atlantic Division
Detroit Red Wings – Jakub Vrana
The Red Wings will be without Jakub Vrana for much of the regular season following an injury sustained during the preseason. It’s a big blow for both the Wings and Vrana, as he was set to take on a big role in Detroit. With projected impact of a high quality top line forward, Vrana’s offensive impact will be missed by the Wings.
Montreal Canadiens – Carey Price / Joel Edmonson / Mike Hoffman / Paul Byron
It was a tough week in Montreal, with the news that Carey Price would be taking a leave from the team to enter the player assistance program. The loss of Price adds to a mounting list of injuries for the Habs, with Joel Edmonson, Mike Hoffman, and Paul Byron all expected to miss the start of the season. The loss of Price hurts the Canadiens the most. While Jake Allen proved he can handle the starters’ role for stretches last season, the Habs will look to Sam Montembeault as their backup heading into the season.
Ottawa Senators – Brady Tkachuk / Colin White
The Senators seem to be at an impasse with RFA Brady Tkachuk and he will start the season on the sidelines as a result. By far the Senators most impactful forward, Tkachuk’s absence will be noticeable. The Sens also lost Colin White for 4-6 months with a shoulder injury during the preseason.
Division Standing
The Boston Bruins look like a powerhouse in the projected standings, on the back of a strong top six forward group and a strong goaltending tandem. Ottawa and Buffalo are well behind as they both continue to rebuild. In between is a tight group of 5 teams that look set to duke it out for playoff positions, including both of last seasons Stanley Cup finalists.
Metropolitan Division
Columbus Blue Jackets – Max Domi
The Blue Jackets received some good news as Max Domi was cleared for contact this week, opening the door for his return earlier than anticipated. With top line projected impact, the return of Domi gives the Blue Jackets’ top six a significant boost.
Philadelphia Flyers – Kevin Hayes
The Flyers lost Kevin Hayes for the first month of the season early in training camp. With a strong projected impact, it’s a significant loss however the Flyers have a few forwards capable of stepping up to fill the hole.
Pittsburgh Penguins – Sidney Crosby / Evgeni Malkin / Jake Guentzel / Zach Aston-Reese
The Penguins forward group is significantly depleted as the season gets underway. With Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin already out with injuries to start the season, Jake Guentzel and Zach Aston-Reese are now both out due to Covid. The plots here show the impact of the Crosby and Malkin injuries and the Penguins will be further depleted until Guentzel and Aston-Reese are cleared to return.
Division Standings
The Metropolitan may be the toughest division in the 21/22 season. The model gives us no clear front-runner with six teams jammed closely together at the top of the division. With traditional powerhouses like the Penguins and Capitals looking to take one more run with their core and rebuilding teams like the Rangers and Devils looking to make some noise, teams will be fighting for every point.
Regular Season Updates
For a full set of team projections, check out this page. Ensure you subscribe and check back for updates to the projections throughout the regular season.
