2021-2022 Season Projections
For all my season previews, we’ll be utilizing my 2021-2022 team and player projections. You can find much more background on these models here, along with more on assessing value of contracts here. We’ll preview the Montreal Canadiens in this post.
2021 Offseason
The Canadiens found themselves up against the cap this summer and watched Philip Danault and Tomas Tatar depart via free agency. They also lost Jesperi Kotkaniemi to the Hurricanes via an offer sheet and captain Shea Weber to injuries. The Habs brought in David Savard, Mike Hoffman, Mathieu Perreault and Christian Dvorak to fill some of the holes and they’ll also look for growth from their young stars.
2021-2022 Season Preview
Roster Strength
The Canadiens appear to have a weakness at the top line, however it’s a bit misleading and we’ll dive deeper shortly. The rest of the forward lines appear to be quite solid, giving the Habs solid forward depth. The defense is capable, although possibly a bit thin while goaltending looks sound.
Forwards
The Canadiens’ top line includes two of their young stars in Nick Suzuki and Cole Caufield. While Suzuki’s projection for the 21/22 season is only that of a third line forward, we saw much more from him in last season’s playoff run. Likewise, Caufield simply doesn’t have enough games at the NHL level to get a projection in the current model but showed he could perform at the NHL level in a small sample size last season. If both players continue their progression, there is a reasonable chance for the Habs top line to greatly outperform the model.
Further down the lineup, the Canadiens brought in Mathieu Perreault and Mike Hoffman in free agency, both with projected impacts of third line forwards. Perreault comes to Montreal with a very high value deal while Hoffman’s is below the league median value. Christian Dvorak was also acquired to replace Jesperi Kotkaniemi and also projects as a third line forward.
Defensemen
With Shea Weber forced out for the 21/22 campaign with career threatening injuries, Jeff Petry looks like the Habs new #1 defenseman. The Canadiens also acquired David Savard to help fill the void, although his projected impact is below top four level.
Goaltending
Carey Price and Jake Allen will be back manning the crease for Montreal this season. Allen played well in a backup capacity last season, including some longer stretches when Price was out. While Price may be past his peak, he is still a very capable starter as he showed in last season’s playoff run.
Team Performance
After their offseason turnover, the model projection puts the Habs in roughly the same position they occupied last season. They look good enough to make the playoffs, although likely as a lower seed. However, their forward depth could make them a tough out come playoff time.
2021-2022 In Season Updates
Make sure to subscribe and check back for updates to the 2021-2022 season projections throughout the season. Watch for updates and enhancements to the models, updated player projections using 2021-2022 season data, analysis of trades and injuries, and more.
Born in Bellevue Alberta 1943 became a Habs fan at the age of 5 where I played Amateur until I was 35 as a goalie. I now live in Portland Oregon but I will remain a Habs fan till I am gone from this earth. Toe will always be my favorite coach but I feel the Habs will do well under this new boss. I feel with the crowds back at the Bell Montreal will do better than most expect. I do miss the games from the Forum it was a special place. I get the Center Ice Pkg., so that I do not miss a Habs game. Looking forward to the 2021/ 2022 season.
The Habs are one team I think have a significant chance of outperforming my model. Forecasting prospects that have limited games played at the NHL level is a weak point in the current set of models. The Habs have a couple of key players in Caufield and Suzuki that could be much better than my model projects. I think they’ll be in the mix in the Atlantic.