2021-2022 Projections
For all my season previews, we’ll be utilizing my 2021-2022 team and player projections. You can find much more background on these models here, along with more on assessing value of contracts here. Today I’m heading north of the border for my first look at a Canadian team, the Vancouver Canucks.
2021 Offseason
In my 2020-2021 Canucks season review, I thought the Canucks should focus on improving their defensive numbers this offseason. They did overhaul their defense corps and also made a splash on the trade market this offseason, acquiring Conor Garland and Oliver Ekman-Larsson from Arizona. Yet the Canucks’ offseason is incomplete, with two star RFAs still in need of contracts. For now, we’ll assume that both Elias Pettersson and Quinn Hughes re-sign before the regular season. We’ll include them in the projected lineup, but we won’t see them on the contract value plots.
2021-2022 Season Preview
Roster Strength
The Canucks have the high end forward talent to compete, but their depth looks questionable. While the Canucks re-vamped their defense corps, it still looks like a weakness and could be cause for concern again this season.
Forwards
The Canucks offense will be led by Elias Pettersson and newly acquired Conor Garland, who should fit nicely in the top six. The second line looks like it will be capable offensively, however defensive impacts are pulling down overall impacts. The bottom six looks like there could be roster spots up for grabs in training camp. Acquiring Jason Dickinson from Dallas added a solid role player, but there is little depth around him. Vasily Podkolzin could be a factor with a breakout rookie season.
The Canucks forward group is a mixed bag in terms of projected value from each contract and the 2021 offseason continued that trend. Conor Garland looks like a good value addition and Jason Dickinson comes in at the league median. On the other hand, Tanner Pearson’s new contract has a very poor projected value, falling well under the 25th percentile.
Defensemen
The Canucks re-vamped their defense this offseason, bringing in Oliver Ekman Larsson and Tucker Poolman and watching longtime Canuck Alex Edler head to California. While Quinn Hughes will be the de facto #1 defenseman, it’s not clear how the rest of the group will line up on opening night. Young defenders Hughes and Olli Juolevi have the best projected impacts, while the rest of the group projects as borderline 2nd/3rd pair defensemen.
Similar to the forwards, the projected value of contracts for 21/22 is all over the map and the new additions follow that same trend. Tucker Poolman’s deal looks like reasonable value, near the median, while Ekman-Larsson’s is atrocious.
Goaltenders
Thatcher Demko will carry the starter’s load for the Canucks this season. With Braden Holtby bought out, the Canucks signed Jaroslav Halak as a backup.
Team Performance
With the Pacific Division looking relatively weak for the 21/22 season, the Canucks should be in the mix for a playoff spot. A breakout rookie season from someone like Podkolzin would help their chances, along with improved team defense.
2021-2022 In Season Updates
Make sure to subscribe and check back for updates to the 2021-2022 season projections throughout the season. Watch for updates and enhancements to the models, updated player projections using 2021-2022 season data, analysis of trades and injuries, and more.
