With the free agent frenzy in the rear view mirror, I’m looking through each team’s moves and analyzing their roster as it sits now. This post will focus on the Eastern Conference teams.
A few comments on the roster strength plots to before we dive in. The roster strength scores compare the strength of each unit to the relative strength that each should have. A score of 0 represents a unit whose average impact equals that of the minimum for a player in that range. For example, a score of 0 for Line 1 equals an average impact for the line equal to the impact of the 96th best forward in the league (32 teams x 3 forwards).
I’ve only included the roster strength plots for each team in the post. For the complete player projections, check out the respective Atlantic and Metropolitan division pages.
Atlantic Division
Boston Bruins
The Bruins made a number of signings as free agency opened. They brought back Mike Reilly and added Derek Forbort for the defense corps. Both come in at a $3M cap hit, although with much different projected impacts. Reilly looks like a good value addition, with impact per $1M above league median for a second pair defenseman, while Forbort projects as a 7th defenseman. The Bruins also added Nick Foligno, Eric Haula and Tomas Nosek up front but the addition of Linus Ullmark may have been their biggest addition. Ullmark quietly put up very strong numbers on a bad Sabres team last season.
At this point, the Bruins have no glaring weaknesses and have a very strong top 6 forward group. Expect them to be a force in the Atlantic.
Buffalo Sabres
The Sabres made a few moves to plug holes in their roster with new signings. Vinnie Hinostroza looks like the best signing, with the projected impact of a second line forward and a cap hit of only $1.05M.
While the Sabres plugged some holes with free agent additions, none were impactful enough to make a big difference to the overall roster strength. The Sabres look like they will be bottom feeders once again.
Detroit Red Wings
The Detroit Red Wings added a number of depth players in free agency. They signed Pius Suter, who was not given a qualifying offer by Chicago. His projected impact is that of a fourth line forward, but the Red Wings will surely be hoping a change of scenery helps his development. The Wings also added Sam Gagner for an $850k cap hit, which looks like great value for his projected 3rd line forward impact.
The Wings look set in goal for 21/22 but are still in rebuild mode.
Florida Panthers
The Panthers did their heavy lifting ahead of free agency, re-signing key RFAs and bringing in Sam Reinhart via trade. The did sign Carter Verhaeghe to a 3 year extension that looks like a great deal. Verhaeghe’s projected impact is that of a second line forward, providing tremendous value for his current $1M cap hit. When his extension takes effect at just over a $4M cap hit, his impact per $1M should still be above the league median.
The biggest question mark for the Panthers for 21/22 is in goal. If Sergei Bobrovsky can return to form or younster Spencer Knight can take over the crease with strong play, the Panthers could be a force.
Montreal Canadiens
The Canadiens had a number of holes to fill in free agency. They brought in David Savard to bolster their defense, which looks like a poor value contract. Savard’s projected impact is that of a borderline 3rd pair defenseman and his impact per $1M is around the 25th percentile. Joel Armia looks like the Habs best value addition, with projected 2nd line impact for a cap hit of just $3.4M.
The Canadiens only glaring weakness is a lack of elite forward talent. If they can succeed with scoring by committee as they did this past season, they should be in the playoff race.
Ottawa Senators
The Senators were quiet on the free agent front. Michael Del Zotto may be the biggest addition, with the projected impact of a borderline 2nd/3rd pair defenseman.
The Senators forward group has a lot of developing talent, but it doesn’t stack up for the 21/22 season. Expect the Sens to occupy the bottom of the division standings, along with the Sabres and Red Wings this season.
Tampa Bay Lightning
The Lightning did not have much cap space to work with heading into free agency, so it was a difficult task to start re-building their bottom six after losing a number of players. The most notable addition may be Corey Perry on a two year deal. Perry has been to the cup final the last two seasons and his projected impact is that of a capable fourth line forward, making his $1M cap hit quite reasonable. His projected impact per $1M is double the league median.
The Lightning look like a deep team once again and will be a force in the Atlantic Division.
Toronto Maple Leafs
The Leafs were relatively quiet in free agency, adding veteran netminder Petr Mrazek along with a handful of depth players. Michael Bunting looks like he could be the best value addition with a $950k cap hit and the projected impact of a capable 3rd line forward.
The Leafs have one of the best top lines in the NHL. Their depth is adequate and may be what decides their fate come playoff time.
Atlantic Division Projected Standings
Metropolitan Division
Carolina Hurricanes
The Hurricanes brought in a couple of veteran netminders in Frederik Andersen and Antii Raanta. Their best value signing for a skater may be Jordan Martinook, who returns to the Canes with the projected impact of a capable third line forward and his impact per $1M is well above the league median.
The Hurricanes look like a well rounded team, although not exceptionally strong anywhere. Depending how their goaltending bets work out, they could be on the outside looking in at playoff time.
Columbus Blue Jackets
The Blue Jackets didn’t make any big splashes in unrestricted free agency, but closed some RFA business. They signed Jake Bean for a $2.3M cap hit, which looks like tremendous value for his projected top pair impact. They weren’t as value focused throughout however, with Zach Werenski signing an extension with a $9.5M cap hit. For a borderline top pair defenseman impact, this is simply too much to be an efficient use of cap space.
The Blue Jackets goaltending looks like their strength. With the rest of the roster looking relatively weak, we can expect to see the Blue Jackets finishing outside the playoffs.
New Jersey Devils
The Devils landed the big fish in free agency, coming to terms with defenseman Dougie Hamilton. Hamilton’s cap hit is $9M, which provides value per $1M near the league median for his franchise defenseman impact. The question will be whether he can maintain his strong impact through the end of the contract.
The Devils look like they are ready to start coming out of their rebuild, with strong defense and goaltending. Their forward group is still relatively weak and it will be a challenge to push into the playoffs this season.
New York Islanders
The Islanders made no free agent signings over the past few days. Their roster is as it was.
The Isles are projected to have solid goaltending in front of a team with no glaring weaknesses, yet also no exceptional strengths.
New York Rangers
While the Rangers focus has clearly been getting tougher to play against this offseason, their best value signings were for impact forwards. Filip Chytil was resigned, along with the addition of Dryden Hunt. Both have projected impacts of 2nd line forwards and come with very reasonable cap hits. These could pan out as excellent value deals for the Rangers.
The Rangers could use some additional top 6 forward talent, but appear to be coming out of their rebuild. They could be in the playoff mix down the stretch.
Philadelphia Flyers
The Flyers added a few depth pieces through free agency. Their most notable addition was Keith Yandle, who was bought out by the Panthers. While he hadn’t lived up to his contract in Florida, the $900k cap hit for a projected 2nd pair impact looks like good value for the Flyers.
The Flyers have good depth up front but their defense and goaltending are suspect.
Pittsburgh Penguins
The Penguins added a handful of depth pieces through free agency. Evan Rodrigues returns with a $1M cap hit, which looks like fantastic value for a high end third line forward impact. Danton Heinen also signed a high value deal, with third line impact and just a $1.1M cap hit.
The Penguins look like a strong all around team and will be in the mix in the Metropolitan. Their goaltending remains the biggest question mark.
Washington Capitals
The Capitals free agency period was headlined by re-signing Alex Ovechkin. While his five year deal likely keeps him in Washington for the remainder of his career, the $9.5M cap hit could be trouble for the Caps. With a projected impact per $1M already below median, this could be an inefficient use of cap space by the end of the deal.
The Capitals look like a strong team, with their defensive depth the most obvious weakness.
Metropolitan Division Projected Standings
