When we looked at the Oilers roster following their first round playoff exit in the spring, we concluded that there was need for a shift in their roster building approach. Rather than tinker around the edges, we saw a need for improved forward depth as well as a tight cap situation that would make that challenging. With the bulk of the offseason in the rearview mirror now, let’s take a look at what the Oilers actually did this summer and how it affects their longer term outlook.
The biggest move the Oilers made this offseason may the change they made behind the bench. Kris Knoblauch was shown the door soon after their season ended and Mike Babcock will return to the NHL next season as the Oilers Head Coach. Babcock will have largely the same roster to work with as Knoblauch had last season, as Stan Bowman made just a couple of notable changes to the roster and re-signed a number of acquisitions made during last season.
The goaltending carousel continued to spin in Edmonton this offseason. Tristan Jarry, acquired in season last winter, will return alongside a couple of newcomers. Devon Levi was acquired from Buffalo after he failed to move up the Sabres depth chart and the Oilers signed 36 year old Frederik Andersen to a one year deal fresh off his cup win with the Hurricanes. Bowman has indicated that the Oilers plan to carry all 3 goalies to start the year so perhaps the plan is simply to go into the season with options and see who gets hot.
The Oilers second notable change to the roster this summer was a modest reshaping of their defense corps. Evan Bouchard, Mattias Ekholm and Jake Walman will return, but the Oilers did find a trade partner willing to take on Darnell Nurse and his full contract in the San Jose Sharks. Shakir Mukhamadullin came to Edmonton in the trade and the Oilers also signed Ryan Shea to a 5 year deal in free agency to fill the resulting hole. The result is a refreshed defense corps that looks like it can hold it’s own. Five defensemen fall above the Support Tier cutline in the projected 5v5 production plot for next season so it looks like there is enough skill on the back end.
Where things don’t look as rosy is up front. Going into the offseason, we postulated that the Oilers needed to improve their forward depth this summer. With training camp just around the corner, that’s the area of the roster that seems to have been left status quo. Yes, the Oilers still have two of the game’s best in Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl but only Zach Hyman joins them above the Support tier cutline. We’d like to see at at least a full top six (preferably more for a contender) above the Support Tier line. There’s also a trend with the Oilers forward group, with the skaters scattered along the bottom right edge of the production plot. That’s another indicator that the depth is questionable, as each skater is expected to produce less than other skaters with similar ice time around the league.
What may be the biggest risk for the Oilers long term outlook is that their contention core is passing their optimal contention years and Connor McDavid has only committed for 2 more seasons. The younger cohort coming in that should help keep their window open is lacking even strong supporting talent, let alone star power. The back end has been reshaped but, up front, this still looks very much like a roster that will go as far as McDavid and Draisaitl can take it. The Oilers have been on a downward trajectory the past couple of seasons and without action to improve their forward group it may be difficult to change that directory.
