It took the Winnipeg Jets four games to find the win column in the 2021-2022 season. When they did, they rattled off four in a row and they now have a six game point streak going. Let’s take a deeper look at the start of the Jets’ season and see how it compare to the full season projections.
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Record
The Jets sit in a tie for second in the Central Division with 10 points through their first 8 games. With only three teams in the division currently over 0.500 P%, the Jets have put themselves in a good position with their early results. Yet teams below them in the standings include the Avalanche and Predators, who both have stronger rosters based on the model projections and still have higher projections over the course of the full season. So while the Jets sit in the second Central Division playoff position now, they need to keep an eye on the teams chasing them.
Even Strength Offense
The Jets have produced 5v5 offense at a good clip through their first 8 games, with a top 10 goals for rate. Their expected goals rate is significantly lower, however, which may be a sign that they are riding some percentage luck to start the season. For the most part, the Jets top six forwards have started the season strong, with many of them outperforming their point projections significantly so far. Nikolai Ehlers and Blake Wheeler are the exceptions and it’s still early enough we can expect both the high and low point rates to become more moderate over the longer term. The Jets defense are generally involved with point production near their projected rates, but the Jets are still waiting for their first 5v5 goal from the D-corps.
Even Strength Defense
The Jets even strength defense has been decent through the first few games of the season. As we’ve become accustomed to, goaltending has been a major factor in that success. Connor Hellebuyck is off to a great start and has helped the Jets 5v5 goals against rate to be ranked in the middle third of the league. This is despite team defense that has allowed an expected goals against rate that is in the bottom third of the league.
Defensively, we find a number of the Jets top forwards with the highest expected goals against rates on the team. Not only are they the highest, but they are higher than their projections as well. It would be great benefit to Winnipeg if their core forwards can tighten up defensively. On the defense corps that the Jets revamped this offseason, we see new additions Brenden Dillon and Nate Schmitd with some of the highest expected goals against rates. For the Jets defensive changes to pay off into improved results, they’ll need stronger defensive performances.
Powerplay
The Jets powerplay follows a similar pattern as their even strength offense. At 5v4, they are generating expected goals at a rate that is ranked in the middle third of the league. Strong finishing has resulted in their goals per 60 ranking in the top 10.
Penalty Kill
Penalty killing has been a weakness so far for the Jets. Their 4v5 xGA/60 is ranked in the bottom third of the league and goaltending has not bailed them out as well as it has at even strength. The result is their 4v5 GA/60 is ranked in the bottom 5 league wide. The Jets need to improve their penalty killing or it could become an area that costs them games.
Lineup Notes
The Jets are off to a good start despite the loss of a couple of key players in the early season. Both captain Blake Wheeler and Mark Scheifele missed a handful of games while in Covid protocol. The Jets strong early season offensive numbers look even better when considering that they were missing a couple of skaters with strong offensive impacts.
Season Projections
Check out the roster plots and player impact projections for the Jets and the rest of the Central Division here and subscribe to follow more updates for the Jets and from around the league throughout the season.
