The Minnesota Wild entered the season looking to sustain their success from last season. Early on, they’ve been up to the task. Let’s take a closer look at their results through the first 8 games.
Grades
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Record
The Wild have a respectable 5-3-0 record through their first eight games. They may have benefitted from a weaker schedule to start the season, with 4 of their 5 wins coming against teams that are currently under 0.500 P% (Ducks x 2, Kings, Canucks). However, it’s allowed them to pick up points in the early season while they haven’t been firing on all cylinders and puts their point percentage slightly above their full season projection. With the highest projected roster strength in the Central Division, the Wild have put themselves in good position as the calendar turns to November.
Even Strength Offense
The Wild’s 5v5 offense is operating slightly below their full season projection, with a goals for rate that is 13th in the league. There are signs that it will pick up as the season goes on as well. The Wild are generating expected goals at a rate that is in the top ten league wide so it’s been a low conversion rate hurting their offensive output early in the season. With finishing highly susceptible to randomness in small samples, it’s likely a matter of time before the goals start going in.
Looking at the offensive leaders among the forward group, we see more evidence that the offense is likely to pick up over the long term. With just their top three point producers outperforming their projections, it’s likely we’ll see production throughout much of the lineup pick up over a larger sample of games played. Defensemen have been a bright spot in the offense through the early season. Unlike the forwards, the Wild’s defensemen have been collecting points well above their projected rates. While these rates will likely taper off over the longer term, the forwards are likely to pick up the slack.
Even Strength Defense
The Wild have put up respectable 5v5 defensive results, with a goals against rate that ranks in the middle third of the league. Their defensive play has been excellent, with expected goals against rate ranking 2nd in the NHL. Goaltending has let them down a bit so far, but they’ve been good enough defensively to survive it.
Looking at the skaters’ defensive impacts, we see very strong results from the Wild’s top forwards in on-ice expected goals against rate. Even their worst forwards in this category still have excellent numbers that are generally below projections, showing why the team result is so strong. The story is similar for defensemen. Only Jordie Benn has an on-ice xGA/60 that should cause some concern, however he has only played one game with under 13 minutes of 5v5 TOI so we can chalk it up to small sample size at this point.
Goaltending was a strong suit for the Wild last season. Unfortunately, it hasn’t carried over in the first few games of the 2021-2022 season. Cam Talbot’s results are decent but they are well below his projection. Kappo Kahkonen had a rough first outing and the Wild will need him to be better as the season goes on.
Powerplay
The Wild’s powerplay has been afflicted by similar finishing issues as their 5v5 offense. At 5v4, their xGF/60 ranks 6th in the NHL yet they sit 19th in the league for GF/60. With a small early season sample size behind the numbers, it’s likely there is some poor percentage luck driving the difference.
Penalty Kill
The Wild’s penalty kill has been a problem area to start the season. They sit 25th in xGA/60 and 27th in GA/60. They have been giving up a ton of chances and their goaltending hasn’t been able to make up the difference. The penalty kill needs to improve as the season goes on if the Wild hope to challenge for the division title.
Lineup Notes
The Wild have been generally healthy through the first 8 games of the season, however they’ve been hit with a few injuries and Covid protocol absences over the past week or so. Jordan Greenway has been placed on the IR with a lower body injury and Alex Gologoski is expected to miss 1-2 weeks with an ailment, although he has not yet gone to the IR. Mats Zuccarello and Rem Pitlick also landed in Covid protocol after testing positive so both will be out until at least November 7.
Up Next
- vs OTT
- @ PIT
- vs NYI
- @ ARI
- @ VGK
Season Projections
Check out the roster plots and player impact projections for the Wild and the rest of the Central Division here and subscribe to follow more updates for the Wild and from around the league throughout the season.
