With the initial free agent frenzy in the rear view mirror, the NHL offseason slowed significantly but there were still some interesting roster moves. Let’s take a look at a few of the more notable ones.
Extension – Edmonton Oilers / Darnell Nurse (8y x $9.25M cap hit)
The Oilers extended defenseman Darnell Nurse a year ahead of free agency, ensuring he stays in Edmonton for the long haul. While Nurse put up excellent numbers last season, it was a significant jump from previous years. We saw in my Oilers 20/21 season review that Nurse benefitted greatly from playing with Connor McDavid as he outperformed my 5v5 GF/60 model by a massive amount after playing 58% of his 5v5 TOI with McDavid.
For the 21/22 season, my model projects Nurse’s impact as that of a high end 2nd pair defenseman. With a cap hit of $5.6M this season before the extension kicks in, his impact per $1M is slightly below the league median but is not outrageously low. However, once his cap hit jumps to $9.25M, this looks like one of the least efficient contracts in the league. Not to mention, he will be in his mid-30s by the end of the deal and there is significant risk of decline due to age becoming a factor.
Re-Signing (RFA) – New York Islanders / Adam Pelech (8y x $5.75M cap hit)
The Islanders re-signed Adam Pelech to a long term deal, locking up the key defender. Pelech was part of the Isles shutdown pair last season, putting up strong defensive numbers without big offensive contributions. Pelech’s projected impact for the 21/22 season is that of a 2nd pair defender and his impact per $1M comes in well below the league median. This looks like a bit of an overpay due to Pelech’s limited offensive contribution, however he fit well in a key shutdown role last season.
Re-Signing (RFA) – Seattle Kraken / Vince Dunn (2y x $4M cap hit)
The Kraken signed Vince Dunn to a 2 year deal with a $2M cap hit. Dunn’s projected impact for the 21/22 season is that of a franchise defenseman in my model, suggesting the Kraken may have found the long term cornerstone for their defense corps. With only a $4M cap hit, the impact per $1M for 21/22 is well above the league median making this a great value signing for Seattle as well.
Signing (UFA) – New Jersey Devils / Tomas Tatar (2y x $4.5M cap hit)
After landing Dougie Hamilton early in free agency, the Devils added possibly the most undervalued high impact player in Tomas Tatar. Tatar’s projected impact for 21/22 is that of a franchise forward and, with a $4.5M cap hit, his projected impact per $1M comes in above the 75th percentile. With the term only 2 years, there is limited risk and the Devils may have the steal of the summer. Even if Tatar performs somewhat under my projections, the Devils should be getting good value from this contract.
Signing (UFA) – Toronto Maple Leafs / Ondrej Kase (1y x $1.25M cap hit)
The Leafs had little cap space to work with this offseason and brought in Ondrej Kase on what could be one of the best value deals of the summer to improve their forward depth. Kase has shown top 6 potential in the past, however he has been derailed by injuries in the past couple of seasons. His projected impact is that of a top line forward and he could certainly help fill the void left by the departure of Zach Hyman if he can stay healthy. With a cap hit of just $1.25M, Kase’s projected impact per $1M is massive, over 4 times the league median.
Complete Updated 2021-2022 Projections
For a complete set of updated projections for the 2021-2022 season, check out this page.
