We’re now a third of the way through the regular season. The standings are beginning to stabilize as we get past the early season streaks. I last checked in on the Pacific Division in mid-November and the landscape looks much the same today as it did a month ago. Let’s take a closer look at the updated projections and how each team has performed over the past month.
Pacific Division Projected Standings
1 – Vegas Golden Knights
Change in Division Rank: +0
The Golden Knights have cooled after a scorching start to the season. Their 5v5 expected goal differential has waned over the past month, due to both a slowing offense and allowing more defensively. They’re still strong in both areas though, and their favorable expected goal differential is a solid foundation for success. Their finishing continues to be break even with their expected goal rates, while their goaltending has been good.
The Golden Knights have a strong and deep defense corps that has been a big part of their 5v5 success. Shea Theodore leads the group in 5v5 time on ice and is in the midst of a great season so far. He’s contributing offensively while putting up a 5v5 on-ice xGA/60 that is in the top quartile among NHL defensemen.
2 – Seattle Kraken
Change in Division Rank: +0
The Seattle Kraken maintain their hold on second spot in the projected standings with another month of strong results. Positive finishing and goaltending have continued, helping buoy a small advantage in 5v5 expected goals. It’s probably unfair to expect the Kraken to keep up their recent pace, but they’ve positioned themselves well by banking points early in the season.
One of the reasons the Kraken have outperformed the model through the first part of the season is the play of rookie Matty Beniers. He’s put himself firmly in the Calder conversation through the first third of the season as he’s played well in the Kraken’s top six. With this season’s data gradually getting more weight in the model, Beniers projected impact is steadily trending upward.
3 – Edmonton Oilers
Change in Division Rank: +0
The Edmonton Oilers struggle to win the 5v5 expected goal battle has continued over the past month. The gap has closed since our last snapshot, however they are working from break even in expected goal share. With break even goaltending and below break even finishing, they’ve needed special teams regularly to win games. That’s been an issue even considering their powerplay is lethal, since their penalty kill has conceded at nearly the same rate.
Trade rumors have surfaced once again around Jesse Puljujarvi, who seems to have fallen out of favor in Edmonton. He’s underperformed the model projection this season, but it doesn’t take much digging to see he’s been rather unlucky. He’s shooting under 3% at 5v5 and has 5v5 on-ice shooting and save percentages of 4.7% and 88.2% respectively. It all points to a likely bounce back at some point.
4 – Calgary Flames
Change in Division Rank: +1
At the time of our last snapshot, the Flames had just ended an 8 game winless streak and they had one of the lowest PDOs in the NHL. While they seem to have stabilized over the past month, we haven’t seen the consistently strong results needed to work their way up the standings. They have maintained a steady positive expected goal differential at 5v5 that should position them well to win games regularly.
Mikael Backlund has been one of the most consistent Flames skaters this season and has helped keep the Flames from falling well off the pace as they try to find their ‘A’ game this season. He’s been one of the Flames top defensive forwards for a long time and he’s outperforming the model projection offensively this season. With no extreme percentages influencing his results thus far, there’s reason to think it may be sustainable.
5 – Vancouver Canucks
Change in Division Rank: -1
The Canucks seem to have stabilized after their atrocious start to the season and they are inching their way up in point percentage. Their 5v5 expected goal rates continue to be a problem though and they’ll need to improve in that area if they hope to continue their climb. Finishing has helped them cover up some of the expected goal deficit.
Brock Boeser’s name has surfaced in trade rumors in recent weeks. He’s had a slow start as far as goal scoring, but a career low 5.7% 5v5 shooting percentage is likely to rebound as the season wears on. More concerning is his defensive impact, which has been a struggle this season.
6 – Los Angeles Kings
Change in Division Rank: +0
The Kings’ key metrics have mostly held steady since our last snapshot. Finishing and goaltending are almost exactly where they were a month ago, while their 5v5 expected goal share has dwindled slightly. The Kings’ results have seemed inconsistent but their record is right where the model projects.
The inconsistency the Kings have shown this season may simply be a symptom of a young team with plenty of prospect learning the ropes at the NHL level together. Blake Lizotte is one of the older prospects on the team at age 24, but he’s shown some growth this season based on the model projections. If the Kings’ young players continue to show growth like this, there’s plenty of reason to think their results will improve as well.
7 – Anaheim Ducks
Change in Division Rank: +0
The 22/23 season continues to be a struggle for the Ducks. Finishing and goaltending have leveled out near the break even point, but they are getting caved in on a nightly basis at 5v5. They’re among the worst teams in the NHL in both xGF/60 and xGA/60, which is a recipe to sink to the bottom of the standings quickly.
Troy Terry has been a bright spot for the Ducks, as he follows up last year’s strong season with another good campaign. He’s exceeding the model projections on the offensive side of the puck.
8 – San Jose Sharks
Change in Division Rank: +0
The Sharks have been fairly consistent over the past month, both in terms of their key metrics and their results. They are breaking even in expected goal share at 5v5 and would probably enjoy a better record if their goaltending wasn’t a big issue. It’s been consistently bad since the start of the season, long enough for it be become a concern.
Timo Meier is putting together a good season for the Sharks. He’s performing very close to the model projection across the board and he continues to look like a quality top line forward. A pending RFA with one year until he’s eligible for unrestricted status and the Sharks looking like they are headed for a long rebuild, his status will be one to watch as the trade deadline approaches.
More
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Free Preview! The Calgary Flames team page has been unlocked as a free preview this week. You’ll find player plots for all players on the full strength roster as well as some long term team projections. Check it out here.
Input data for models from Natural Stat Trick. Contract data from CapFriendly.
