The Calgary Flames flew out of the gate this season, posting a 5-1-0 record in their first 6 contests. They quickly sputtered though, after a tumultuous offseason that saw two cornerstone players head for greener pastures. Flames fans have been strapped into a rollercoaster over the past 12 months and the new season has done nothing to suggest they can unbuckle their 5 point harnesses. Will the ride ever stop? Are the Flames legitimate contenders or not?
My last look at the Calgary Flames was in mid-September, when I looked at their most notable offseason moves and their roster profile heading into the 2022-2023 season. The Flames had arguably the most active offseason in the NHL with some big name players both departing and arriving. If you missed it, or simply want a refresher, you can find it here. Now, let’s take a look at their performance through the first third of the 22/23 regular season to see how those offseason moves are working out.
2022-2023 Season Performance
Team Metrics
The first key metric to look at on the team performance plot is the 5v5 expected goal rates, since they’re less prone to luck and more predictive of future success. The Flames have been very consistent since the second week of the season in their expected goal rates and they’ve established a consistent, favorable expected goal share. Their xGA/60 has been trending down slightly over the past month, which may be a sign of new players adjusting to the Flames system. The improvement also corresponds with the return of Chris Tanev and Michael Stone from injury, so it may simply be a personnel effect. The model projection also has the Flames with a positive 5v5 xG differential, although slightly lower event than their actual results.
The Flames troubles through the early part of the season seem to stem from shooting and goaltending, which we know are more prone to puck luck in smaller sample sizes. Goaltending has been a concern through much of the early season, although it’s taken an upward turn over the past couple of weeks due to a nice stretch of play from Dan Vladar. Finishing has fluctuated regularly but sits near break even with respect to expected goals. Looking at the season as a whole, there aren’t any big surprises relative to the model projection in either category.
The powerplay was a factor in the Flames 5-1-0 start to the year as it was hot out of the gate. It’s cooled substantially, however, and the Flames are breaking even on special teams looking at the season as a whole.
Individual Performance
Jonathan Huberdeau was expected to be an offensive catalyst for the Flames this season. He struggled out of the gate, though, and a lack of elite offensive production is apparent on the Flames leaderboard. Elias Lindholm and Mikael Backlund lead the team in 5v5 P/60 and both sit just below the 75th percentile among NHL forwards.
The good news for the Flames is that a bump in production from Huberdeau seems imminent. His projected 5v5 point rate for the remainder of the season is significantly higher than his results to date. His individual 5v5 shooting percentage is 7.1%, which is his lowest since the 2016-17 season. His line mates have also been struck by some poor finishing luck early on, as his 5v5 on-ice shooting percentage is only 6.7%. He’s been picking up steam over the past couple of weeks and a return to his usual offensive form seems likely. The other good news for the Flames is that Huberdeau has been posting strong defensive results and he sits among the league leaders in 5v5 xGA/60.
On defense, the biggest concern for the Flames is the top pair of Noah Hanifin and Rasmus Andersson. They’ve struggled in their own end this season, with an on-ice xGA/60 that is significantly higher than projected. The rest of the defense corps has been solid defensively. The pair has looked better recently, though, and a return to form for the pair would be welcome news for the Flames.
Pacific Division Landscape
The Flames sit in much the same position in the Pacific Division as they did in the season preview, although the landscape has shifted around them. The Golden Knights are still the favorite to win the division and the Flames still sit neck-and-neck with the rival Oilers in the projected standings. However, the Seattle Kraken have emerged as a legitimate threat for a playoff berth with some strong early season results and they now sit above the Alberta teams in the projected standings. The Canucks and Kings are both also still very much in the mix.
Current Roster Profile
The Flames rank above average across the board, with the exception of goaltending which now sits at league average. The roster profile has seen improvement since the preseason version across most areas, due in large part to upward trending player projections. The emergence of Adam Ruzicka and strong starts from MacKenzie Weegar, Mikael Backlund and Dan Vladar are some of the more notable factors.
The Flames results through the early season haven’t painted them as a Stanley Cup contender. On the other hand, their underlying key metrics and the progression of their roster profile suggest we shouldn’t write them off yet either. They look fully capable of claiming a playoff berth with the current roster. The Flames have roughly $4.4M in deadline cap space (via CapFriendly) which is enough to make one or two meaningful deadline additions.
How can the Flames use their deadline cap space to maximize their roster heading into the playoffs? Check back tomorrow for a Calgary Flames Roadmap, where we’ll dig into that question.
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Free Preview! The Calgary Flames team page has been unlocked as a free preview this week. Check it out here.
Historical player data from Natural Stat Trick. Contract data from CapFriendly.
