Our last Pacific Division Snapshot was taken in late October with just a couple of weeks of regular season action in the books. A few weeks later, we’re starting to get a much better picture of how teams are performing this season.
Players are starting to cross the 200 5v5 minutes mark in droves, which starts to give us a better sense of how this year’s performance fits into the bigger picture. After Saturday’s games, there were 75 forwards, 127 defensemen, and 51 goalies across the NHL that were over 200 5v5 minutes. They all have updated performance projections that incorporate the new data and the team projections have been updated as a result.
Let’s take a look through the Pacific Division to see how the landscape has evolved over the past three weeks since our last snapshot.
Pacific Division Projected Standings
1 – Vegas Golden Knights
Change in Division Rank: +0
When we last checked in on the Pacific Division, the Golden Knights were tied with the Calgary Flames atop the division standings. Since then, the Golden Knights have continued to play well while their closest challengers have hit some rough patches. Goaltending has regresses somewhat from an early high, but a large, favorable 5v5 expected goal differential has paced Vegas to an excellent record. With 26 points in just 15 games, the Golden Knights are now 5 points clear of second in the division and 11 points up on the first non-playoff team in the wild card race.
Jack Eichel has been on a tear to start the season. Finally healthy to start the season, he looks like he’s making up for lost time. With tremendous offensive production and a defensive impact that’s among the top quartile for NHL forwards, Eichel has re-established himself as one of the NHL’s superstars with his play this season. It’s already resulted in a significant bump to his projected impact and we’ll see it continue to rise if he keeps up his current level of play.
With such a strong record out of the gate, it comes as no surprise that many of the Golden Knights skaters that have crosses the 200 5v5 minutes threshold have seen improvements to their projected impacts. Their team profile benefits from those adjustments as well and Vegas continues to profile as a strong team. It looks like it will be a tall task for another Pacific Division team to track them down in the standings.
2 – Seattle Kraken
Change in Division Rank: +3
The Seattle Kraken were lurking behind the division leaders in our last snapshot and they’ve pulled themselves up the projected standings since then. Their early finishing struggles have subsided and they’ve had good goaltending from Martin Jones and Joey Daccord. A large advantage in expected goals has eroded somewhat, however, which could be trouble if the trend continues.
There have been some strong performances from a number of Kraken players early this season and Vince Dunn’s is one of the most noteworthy. He’s been a force on the back end, eating a lot of 5v5 minutes with a strong overall impact. He’s chipped in offensively to supplement a strong defensive impact and his projected impact is on the rise.
The Kraken’s team profile looks slightly stronger than it did at our last snapshot, with improvements in a number of areas as this year’s performance starts to be factored in. While they look like an average team, they’ve positioned themselves well with their early results and they look like they’ll be a factor in the playoff race at the moment.
3 – Edmonton Oilers
Change in Division Rank: +1
We’ve seen both sides of the Edmonton Oilers since our last snapshot. They strung together a 5 game win streak, only to lose 4 of their next 5 games. Their expected goal differential at 5v5 is concerning, as they’ve run a small deficit through the entire season so far. Strong goaltending and winning the special teams battle was enough to make up for it for a while, but it’s been a problem in their recent skid as goaltending has come back to earth.
Zach Hyman has been a bright spot in the Oilers lineup, particularly when it comes to 5v5 offensive impact. It’s concerning that his defensive impact has been much higher than projected, however his performance from prior season suggests that should improve with a larger sample size.
The Oilers continue to profile as a slightly above average team. They’ve struggled defensively to start the season, however, and there’s a concerning trend in with their even strength defense rating starting to drop. There’s still plenty of time to sort it out though and the model has them in the mix for a divisional playoff berth.
4 – Vancouver Canucks
Change in Division Rank: -1
It was an abysmal start to the season in Vancouver as the Canucks were the last team to record a victory this season. While there still seems to be plenty of drama in the front office, the Canucks’ on-ice results have improved over the past couple of weeks. Yet their key metrics haven’t seen that improvement. They’re still losing ground at 5v5 in terms of expected goal share and their penalty kill is giving up more than their powerplay has generated.
J.T. Miller’s early season struggles are a microcosm of the Canucks’ overall performance. He’s been bad defensively, with little offensive impact to balance it out. With the ink still drying on his 8 year extension, it’s not the start that either he or the Canucks surely envisioned.
While the model projects the Canucks in fourth in the final standings, a look at their team profile give a sense of how shaky that projection is. The model is a big fan of the Canucks goaltending tandem, which is pulling up their team strength by a large margin. Whether or not the Canucks can stay in the playoff race depends largely on whether their goaltenders can keep them in it. Thatcher Demko has struggled early and Spencer Martin has been excellent, so early indications are it could go either way.
5 – Calgary Flames
Change in Division Rank: -3
At the time of our last snapshot, the Flames were off to an excellent start after knocking off a number of strong teams to start the 22/23 campaign. Things turned quickly, however, and an 8 game winless streak ensued that ended with a victory over the Winnipeg Jets on Saturday. Things may not be as bad as they seem on the surface, though, as the Flames maintained a favorable 5v5 expected goal share throughout the losing streak. They also have one of the lowest 5v5 PDO’s in the league, suggesting there’s some positive regression on the horizon.
Noah Hanifin and Rasmus Anderson have struggled to start the season, particularly compared to last season. The same cannot be said for newcomer MacKenzie Weegar, who has been a stabilizing force on the Flames blueline. His 5v5 defensive impact has been among the best in the league and he’s chipped in offensively as well.
Overall, the Flames roster profile has changed very little since our last snapshot. Gains from standouts like Weegar have been eroded by struggles from others. The Flames continue to profile as an average team. After digging a hole with their recent losing streak, they need to find their game quickly to avoid falling too far behind the other playoff hopefuls.
6 – Los Angeles Kings
Change in Division Rank: +2
In our last check-in, we weren’t quite sure what to make of the Kings. They’ve helped bring the picture into focus since then, however, with generally strong performance. Their 5v5 expected goal share has improved significantly, with gains on both offense and on defense. Finishing and goaltending have regressed to sustainable levels and they’ve moved into second place in the current standings.
The Kings are a young team and their emerging talent has been a big factor this season. Gabe Vilardi, who we looked at in the last snapshot, has continued to perform well. Another standout has been Sean Durzi, who sees a nice bump to his projected impact in the first in-season update.
The Kings roster profile has seen some improvement with the early player projection updates. While they still profile as a below average team, they’ve made a significant move upward in team strength. That improvement has come largely on the back of a sizeable bump to their even strength offense rating. Assuming we continue to see development from the large contingent of young Kings’ skaters through the season, we could see the Kings looking much stronger as the season wears on. After positioning themselves well with their early play, the question is whether it will be enough to hold off more experienced teams in the playoff hunt.
7 – Anaheim Ducks
Change in Division Rank: +0
The Ducks continue to struggle mightily at 5v5, giving up about one xG/60 more than they generate. With their special teams also struggling, they’ve been sputtering early this season. Unless they can find a dramatic improvement in a hurry, the Ducks look like they’ll be entering the draft lottery sweepstakes early.
One bit of good news for the Ducks has been the play of Trevor Zegras. Part of the future core that will be expected to become a contender, his development is key for the Ducks. So far this season, results are encouraging as his projected impact is creeping upward on the first update with 22/23 season data.
The Ducks profile as a slightly below average team. It wouldn’t have been a surprise to see them stick in the playoff race, particularly early in the season, if they got a few breaks. That hasn’t been the case, however, and it will be a tall task for the Ducks to pull themselves back into the mix after their early struggles.
8 – San Jose Sharks
Change in Division Rank: -2
The Sharks 5v5 game has seen some significant improvement over the past few weeks. Unfortunately, abysmal goaltending and finishing have seen those gains go for naught. We’re bound to see some positive regression in both areas eventually, but it’s put the Sharks behind the eight ball to start the season.
While the team has struggled to start the season, the Sharks’ stars have not. Erik Karlsson, Timo Meier and Tomas Hertl have all looked good early. Hertl is outpacing his projected scoring rates, particularly 5v5 G/60 and has maintained an above average defensive impact.
The Sharks roster profile does not paint a pretty picture. While they sit ahead of both the Ducks and the Canucks in the current standing, their roster doesn’t look strong enough to stay there.
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Input data for models from Natural Stat Trick. Contract data from CapFriendly.
