The vibes in Buffalo are off the charts. The vibes in Toronto are decidedly not. A lot has happened in the Atlantic Division since our last snapshot in mid-October, only about a week into the new season. Let’s dig in.
The team projections are built up from player projections, which use a minimum of 200 5v5 minutes per season. Across the NHL, 37 goalies, 47 defensemen and 2 forwards are now over that mark. We’re starting to get a better idea of long term trends that incorporate this season’s performance, there’s still room for early puck luck to mask long term indicators.
Atlantic Division Projected Standings
The Bruins have grabbed ahold of favorite status in the Atlantic Division with a scorching hot start. The other three incumbent playoff teams are very much in the mix again, while the Red Wings continue to look like they may mount a challenge for a playoff spot. The Sabres strong start hasn’t pushed them into challenger status yet, while the upstart Senators have struggled to meet expectations so far.
1 – Boston Bruins
Change in Division Rank: +0
The Bruins are off to a scorching hot start and they currently sit atop the NHL standings with a 10-2-0 record. Strong 5v5 play has been a trademark of the Bruins for years and early results this season show a similar trend. The gap between 5v5 xGF/60 and xGA/60 has narrowed over the past couple of weeks but it’s still strong. The Bruins have also benefited from strong finishing at 5v5, which has been creeping down from it’s early high but is still well above break even.
Hampus Lindholm is one of two Bruins skaters over 200 5v5 minutes on the season. He’s off to a great start in his first full season in Boston, with a strong offensive contribution so far. His projected impact ticked up sharply with the first update using this season’s data which is a good sign for the Bruins after they signed him to a long term deal in the offseason.
2 – Florida Panthers
Change in Division Rank: +0
The Panthers are the top rated team in the model, but sit second in the projected standings due to the lead the Bruins have opened up in the current standings. Florida’s offense is flying high, much like it did last year, and they’ve improved on the defensive side of the puck over the last couple of weeks. Their powerplay is off to a slow start, however. If it heats up, look for the Panthers to go on a run.
With an injury to Aaron Ekblad just 3 games into the season, there was pressure on the Panthers D to step up. Gustav Forsling certainly has and he is currently the most heavily utilized Panthers defenseman at 5v5. He’s had a strong offensive contribution and his 5v5 xGA/60 sits near the current league average. He’s been good enough to see an improvement in the first update to his projection this season on what was already a strong projected impact.
3 – Tampa Bay Lightning
Change in Division Rank: +2
The Lightning were off to an inauspicious start to the season last time we checked in. They seem to be finding their game now, though, and we’ve seen a dramatic improvement in their expected goal share at 5v5 since that snapshot. Their finishing has also improved to no sit roughly break even. They’ve also been winning games and sit in second place in the Atlantic in the current standings.
Mikhail Sergachev has been the Lightning’s most heavily utilized defenseman at 5v5 and is the only Bolts skater over 200 5v5 minutes. He’s had a stronger offensive contribution than projected so far, offset by a weaker defensive impact.
4 – Toronto Maple Leafs
Change in Division Rank: -1
The vibes in Toronto were wretched a week ago after they limped home from their California road trip. They’ve improved somewhat after a couple of wins this week but the 6-4-2 Leafs aren’t where they’d like to be in the standings. Under the surface, however, things look more promising. They’ve been winning the expected goal battle at 5v5 handily but haven’t been able to finish their chances. That’s not likely to last long, particularly given the top end talent the Leafs possess.
The biggest concern at this point may be the health of their goaltenders after Ilya Samsonov left Saturday’s game with an injury. It’s a tough break for Samsonov and the Leafs as Samsonov has looked good to start the season. While he looked like a capable backup based on the season opening projections, his projected impact has started to creep up based on his performance this season.
5 – Detroit Red Wings
Change in Division Rank: -1
The Red Wings sit in third place in the Atlantic Division after Saturday’s games but they’ve fallen behind the four incumbent playoff teams in the full season projections. They’re losing the expected goal battle at 5v5 on a regular basis, which is a trend they need to correct if they truly have playoff aspirations. Some regression in both finishing and goaltending in the last couple of week has made that more apparent than through the first two weeks of the season.
The good news for the Red Wings is that Ville Husso seems to be building off the strong performance he showed last season in St Louis. He’s made a strong claim to be the Red Wings #1 goaltender with his play this season and we see his projected impact trending upward.
6 – Montreal Canadiens
Change in Division Rank: +0
The Canadiens are off to a good start in what was widely expected to be a rebuilding season. They sit just below .500 with a 5-6-1 record. Below the surface, however, things don’t look quite as rosy. They’re giving up a lot more than they are generating at 5v5 and it’s been strong finishing and goaltending helping them overcome it through the first 12 games. Those elements are likely to see some regression in the long term.
Rookie Jordan Harris has seen plenty of ice time to start his NHL career. Now over the 200 5v5 minute mark this season, we have our first look at a projection for him. It’s important to note that the projection is still heavily influenced by the season opening projection (where rookies are assumed to be replacement level) given we’re only a month into the season. Harris looks like an NHL player based on this initial update. The model still has very little data to base this on though so we’ll watch how Harris’ projected impact trends as the model learns more about his performance as we get more 22-23 season data.
7 – Ottawa Senators
Change in Division Rank: +0
Expectations in Ottawa were high going into the season. It would be fair to say the Senators haven’t met those expectations based on their results so far. Their 4-7-0 record has them in last place in the Atlantic division. There are signs that things will turn in Ottawa’s favor though. They are generating more expected goals for than they give up at 5v5 which should be a good foundation for success. Finishing and goaltending are both near even, so there isn’t a risk of regression in either area causing distress.
Thomas Chabot is the most heavily utilized defenseman in the NHL at 5v5 after Saturday’s games, getting 20 minutes of 5v5 TOI/GP. While his on-ice 5v5 GF/60 looks good, his individual numbers are a step behind as he is yet to pick up a primary point at 5v5 this season.
8 – Buffalo Sabres
Change in Division Rank: +0
The vibes in Buffalo have been impeccable to start the season. The Sabres are off to a strong start, including a sweep of a swing through Western Canada where they dispatched the Oilers, Flames and Canucks and looked good doing it. While the vibes have been good, the underlying numbers aren’t quite as strong. The Sabres have run a expected goal deficit at 5v5 so far this season and strong, timely finishing and goaltending have been enough to put victories on the board.
Rookie Owen Power is now over 200 5v5 minutes and we have our first look at a projection based on this year’s performance for him. Like with Harris earlier in this post, we’re more interested in the direction Power’s projected impact is trending as the model learns about his performance. Power’s projected impact takes a nice jump upward in this initial update which is a great sign.
More Plots
Want to peruse the player projections behind the team profiles or browse team plots for all 32 teams? Sign up for an annual membership to get access to all 22/23 team and player projection cards. Plots will be updated to track progress through the season so you can follow along with the changing landscape.
Free Preview! The Buffalo Sabres team page has been unlocked as a free preview this week. You’ll find player plots for all player on the full strength roster as well as some long term team projections. Check it out here.
Input data for models from Natural Stat Trick. Contract data from CapFriendly.
