Stanley Cup Champions. It’s the goal of many, but only one team earns the title each season. This year it was the Colorado Avalanche prevailing after a number of disappointing playoff exits in recent years. The final was appointment viewing, as the Avs had to knock off the two-time defending champion Tampa Bay Lightning in the Stanley Cup Final.
Let’s take a look at a dominant 21/22 season from the Avalanche, along with what’s in store for the 22/23 season.
2021-2022 Season Performance
Regular Season
With injuries to a number of key players and a Covid outbreak early in the season, it took the Avalanche a long runway to take off in the 21/22 season. Once they did, they were nearly unstoppable. They controlled play at 5v5, generating expected goals for at an above average rate while limiting expected goals against among the top quartile of teams in the NHL. Their goaltending was not spectacular but got the job done while finishing was very strong. Add a strong powerplay and average penalty kill and it’s easy to see why the Avs were one of the toughest outs in the league.
The Avalanche’s established stars led their attack, but it was a trio of secondary forwards that stole the show this season. With Nathan MacKinnon and company drawing attention from opposing teams, Nazem Kadri, Valeri Nichushkin, and Andre Burakovsky feasted on lower quality matchups to put together very strong seasons and seven Avs forwards finished in the top quartile for 5v5 P/60. There was plenty of support from the blueline as well. With Cale Makar leading the charge, four Avs defensemen were in the top quartile for 5v5 P/60 as well.
Playoffs
The Avalanche’s dominance continued into the postseason. They controlled play at 5v5 from start to finish, never seeming to take their foot off the gas. With two sweeps along the way, they only lost four games on their way to the Stanley Cup.
Looking Ahead to 2022-2023
Offseason Moves
The Avalanche headed into the offseason facing certain change after their cup run. A number of key players became unrestricted free agents and the Avalanche had to prioritize who to focus on retaining. Valeri Nichushkin was an obvious choice after his oustanding playoff performance and he returns on an eight year deal. The Avs also brought back trade deadline acquisition Josh Manson on a four year deal, along with a few depth players.
As for notable UFAs that are not returning: Andre Burakovsky and Darcy Keumper left town to sign big deals elsewhere, while Nazem Kadri remains unsigned at this point in the offseason.
With Darcy Keumper appearing to price himself out of the Av’s future plans, Colorado also got into the trade action at the draft acquiring Alexandar Georgiev from the New York Rangers for a package of picks. Georgiev is projected as a borderline starter in the model, but was never going to get the opportunity as a number 1 behind Igor Shesterkin. He’ll have a chance to battle for the starter’s role with Pavel Francouz this season and the Avalanche look like they’ve found average goaltending between the two.
22/23 Roster
With the majority of the offseason complete, the Avalanche don’t look like the juggernaut they were last season but still look like a strong team. With Cale Makar’s extension kicking in this season and Nathan MacKinnon set for free agency next summer, the Avs had to be frugal with their offseason spending which limited how they were able to address holes created by departing UFAs. They’re shaping up as a strong all-around team once again, with an attack that will be difficult to contain.
With some time left in the offseason, it’s conceivable the Avalanche have another move or two left to make. According to CapFriendly, Colorado has about $4M in cap space remaining with 21 players under contract on the NHL roster.
Central Division Landscape
Three teams are clear favorites for the Central Division playoff berths next season, with the Avalanche being one of them. With the loss of some depth in their forward group, they trail the Wild and Predators in the early projections for next season but are still comfortably ahead of the pack of teams chasing the leaders.
Want to check out more projections for the 22/23 season? Sign up for an annual membership to get access to all 22/23 team and player projection plots and peruse the full set of free agent player cards. Plots will be updated through the offseason as the 22/23 rosters take shape and updated to track progress through the season.
Historical player data from Natural Stat Trick. Contract data from CapFriendly.
