With the NHL entry draft complete, free agency looms on the horizon of the 2022 offseason. While the prospects selected at the draft are mostly years away from having an impact at the NHL level, that doesn’t man that teams didn’t reposition themselves for the upcoming season. Let’s take a look at how the Atlantic Division landscape has evolved since my initial offseason snapshot, with roster transactions included up to the end of the draft.
For the analysis below, we’ll make a few key assumptions. First, we’ll assume that all RFAs will return to their current clubs. Their impact is included in the team projections, however no cap hit is included in the team totals. Obviously, some of each team’s cap space will be required to resign their RFAs so we’ll make note of potential cap headaches where applicable. Second, all UFAs are removed from the rosters. Any resulting holes in the roster have been filled with replacement level players.
Atlantic Division Projected Standings
The Atlantic Division was the center of much of the draft day trades this year. The Ottawa Senators and Detroit Red Wings both made significant inroads in crossing the gap between the incumbent favorites and the also-rans. Let’s take a look at how each team’s outlook for the 22/23 season has changed since the previous snapshot. I’ve included both the current and previous roster profiles for reference.
Boston Bruins
Change in Projected Standings Points: +0
Change in Division Rank: +0
The Bruins have had a quiet start to the 2022 offseason, with no notable roster transactions at the NHL level since the initial snapshot. Patrice Bergeron’s status for next season remains the big question mark, as the league’s best two-way forward over the past 2 decades contemplates his future.
Florida Panthers
Change in Projected Standings Points: +0
Change in Division Rank: +0
The Panthers have also been quiet to start the offseason. They signed a pair of RFAs (Eetu Luostarinen and Lucas Carlsson) to extensions on day 2 of the draft. The signings eat into their cap space and they now have $81.6M committed to 19 players for next season.
With cap space incredibly tight, the Panthers are still in tough to fill out their 22/23 roster without moving out some salary.
Tampa Bay Lightning
Change in Projected Standings Points: +1
Change in Division Rank: +1
In our initial snapshot, the Lightning looked to be in a tight spot with the cap. They started to address that ahead of the draft, sending Ryan McDonaugh to the Predators and receiving Philippe Myers in return. It looks like a clever move by the bolts, as they moved out McDonaugh’s $5M cap hit before seeing age related declines crop up. In return, Myers is a cost effective contract who has put up strong impacts in a limited role.
The Lightning now have 20 NHL players under contract for next season, with a total of a $76.6M cap hit. There still isn’t a lot of room to add or retain high impact players in free agency, but it’s better than it was in the last snapshot.
Toronto Maple Leafs
Change in Projected Standings Points: -5
Change in Division Rank: -1
In the initial offseason snapshot, we noted that the Leafs needed to find a quality goaltender at an affordable price. Instead of adding in goal, however, the Leafs started the offseason by subtracting. They sent Petr Mrazek to the Blackhawks in a draft day exchange. While it leaves an even bigger hole in the crease for now, it does free up some additional cap space so the Leafs won’t have to be as thrifty when looking for next year’s starter.
With two replacement level plugs now occupying the goaltender positions, the Leafs have taken a step back since the last snapshot. It’s a big picture play, however, as they have more cap space to work with.
Ottawa Senators
Change in Projected Standings Points: +1
Change in Division Rank: +0
The Senators had plenty of cap space going into the offseason. We noted in the initial snapshot that they could mount a challenge to the incumbent Atlantic powerhouses if they made good use of that cap space this offseason. They started off on the right foot, adding Alex DeBrincat in a draft day deal. DeBrincat brings an elite forward impact that should help the Sens next season.
The Atlantic leaders should be looking over their shoulders. If the Senators follow up the DeBrincat trade with a good free agency period, they could fight their way into the top half of the division.
Detroit Red Wings
Change in Projected Standings Points: +7
Change in Division Rank: +0
Like the Senators, the Red Wings had plenty of cap space going into the offseason. Their first significant move was acquiring the UFA rights to Ville Husso and signing him to an extension. Not unlike Alex Nedeljkovic last year, Husso’s body of work at the NHL level is quite small yet his results suggest he’s a capable starter. Although still somewhat unproven, the Red Wings look like they’ve put together a strong goaltender tandem.
The addition of Husso suggests that the Red Wings may be looking for a return to legitimacy rather than chasing a top pick in next season’s draft. Once again, similar to the Sens, they could be ready to make some noise in the Atlantic if they have a good free agent frenzy.
Montreal Canadiens
Change in Projected Standings Points: -3
Change in Division Rank: +0
The Montreal Canadiens hosted the draft and seemed determined to be at the center of things. After taking Juraj Slafkovsky first overall in a debatable decision, they made a couple of significant trades before the first round was over as well. After sending Alex Romanov to the Islanders for a first round pick, they flipped the pick to Chicago along with a 3rd to acquire Kirby Dach. While Dach’s projected impact next season is a bottom six forward, he is just 21. With a rebuild in progress, this looks like a move with the long game in mind.
Buffalo Sabres
Change in Projected Standings Points: +0
Change in Division Rank: +0
There was a short period on draft weekend when it looked as though the Sabres would acquire Matt Murray from the Senators, however it was reported that Murray nixed the deal with his no-trade clause. In the end, all was quiet for the Sabres since the initial snapshot.
More Plots
Want to peruse the player projections behind the team profiles or browse UFA player cards for the addition your favorite team needs? Sign up for an annual membership to get access to all 22/23 team and player projection cards. Plots will be updated through the offseason as the 22/23 rosters take shape and updated to track progress through the season so you can follow along with the changing landscape.
Input data for models from Natural Stat Trick. Contract data from CapFriendly.
