In the FA signing series, we take an in depth look at a deal signed by a restricted or unrestricted free agent along with their performance since the deal and future projections. Today’s subject: Filip Chytil and the New York Rangers.
The Contract
Date: July 29, 2021
Signed by New York Rangers:
- Filip Chytil (age 21): 2 years, $2.3M cap hit, RFA at expiry
Projected Impact / Initial Value Assessment:
Chytil was a restricted free agent in the 2021 offseason, following the completion of his entry-level contract. His projection for the 21/22 season was a second line forward, with a projected value of $3.4M. With recent contracts trending below the overall value curve, the Rangers signed him to a 2 year deal with a cap hit of $2.3M. It was slightly better value than the market rate and even more favorable given that RFAs of Chytil’s impact were getting higher cap hits than equivalent UFAs.
2021-2022 Performance
Chytil struggled to perform up to his projected impact this season but a closer look suggests he was the victim of some poor puck luck. His 5v5 G/60 was particularly low relative to his projection, however his shooting percentage was just 6.09% which is very low for a forward. On-ice 5v5 SH% was better at 7.24%, but may also have been a factor in his lower overall offensive output. Defensively, Chytil struggled along with the entire Rangers team at 5v5 for much of the season and, combined with his low offensive output, he had an actual value well under both his projected value and his cap hit.
2022-2023 Projections
While the 22/23 season projections are still preliminary without the full 21/22 regular season data, there’s enough data to give us a reasonable picture of what we can expect next season. With two seasons shooting over 10% prior to this season, the model projects that Chytil’s offensive impact will bounce back next year. With average defensive impact, he projects as a middle six forward with value over $3M.
The Verdict
Through the first year of the two year pact, this one is still very much up in the air. Chytil’s projected value was greater than his cap hit this season, however poor puck luck drove some lackluster results. With a bounce back season projected by the model and his projected value for next season once again exceeding his cap hit, it still looks quite possible that the Rangers will get a good return on their investment by the time this deal expires.
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