In the FA signing series, we take an in depth look at a deal signed by a restricted or unrestricted free agent along with their performance since the deal and future projections. Today’s subject: Dillon Dube and the Calgary Flames.
The Contract
Date: Aug 26, 2021
Signed by Calgary Flames:
- Dillon Dube (age 22): 3 years, $2.3M cap hit, RFA at expiry
Projected Impact / Initial Value Assessment:
Dube was a restricted free agent and signed a 3 year deal with the Flames that will become an RFA once again at it’s expiry. The deal came with a $2.3M cap hit.
Dube’s projected impact for the 21/22 season was a 3rd line forward with a projected value of $2.83M. It lands almost right on the market value curve and, with the market value currently below the overall value curve, makes for a good value deal for the Flames.
2021-2022 Performance
While most of the Flames skaters have excelled defensively under Darryl Sutter this season, Dube has been a bit of an enigma. His xGA/60 is one of the highest on the team and sits just above the median for all NHL forwards. It’s led to his actual value coming in well below his projection, despite performing near projections offensively. Looking deeper into his offensive numbers, it’s encouraging that he’s been able to put up the numbers he has given his individual shooting percentage is 7.6% at 5v5 (lowest since his rookie season in 18/19) and a low on-ice SH% at 5v5 of 6.5%.
2022-2023 Projections
While the 22/23 season projections are still preliminary without the full 21/22 regular season data, there’s enough data to give us a reasonable picture of what we can expect next season. The preliminary projections show growth from Dube, particularly in his offensive game. With his poor puck luck from the 21/22 season considered, his offensive projections are up and he looks like a legitimate middle six forward next season.
The Verdict
Through almost a full season of the three year deal, this contract looks like a win for Flames. The deal came in right on the value curve based on 21/22 projections and, while Dube has struggled to meet the projections this season, there are signs that some poor puck luck has been at least partially responsible. Looking at next season’s projections, his value is expected to rise and the Flames could have a capable middle six forward on a good value contract for another two seasons.
While this deal looks like a win so far, there is time for that to change. Subscribe to get future check-ins on free agent signings and trades, along with other updates from around the NHL.
