With the Flames on a six game win streak and sitting first in the Pacific Division by point percentage, GM Brad Treliving rewarded his players and tipped over the first domino ahead of the 2022 trade deadline. The Flames acquired winger Tyler Toffoli for a package that included Tyler Pitlick and a first round pick. Let’s take a look the deal.
The Trade
Date: February 14, 2022
To Calgary Flames:
- Tyler Toffoli ($4.25M cap hit, signed through 23/24, UFA on expiry, age 29)
To Montreal Canadiens
- Tyler Pitlick($1.75M cap hit, pending UFA, age 30)
- Emil Heineman (SHL, age 20)
- 2022 1st Round Pick (CGY) *top 10 protected
- 2023 5th Round Pick (CGY)
The Assets
Calgary Flames – Tyler Toffoli
The Flames top line has been lighting up opposing teams all season but secondary scoring has been a concern in Calgary and the addition of Toffoli should help improve production from the middle six. His offensive impact appears to be down this season, but a rebound looks likely. Toffoli’s 5v5 G/60 is incredibly low this season but it’s due to an unsustainably low 3.23% shooting percentage. His on-ice shooting percentage is also a low, although less dramatically, at 5.91% yet he’s managed to exceed projected 5v5 A/60. Defensively, he’s one of two Canadiens forwards to put up a 5v5 on-ice xGA/60 below the league median this season. Coming to a much more defensively sound team, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see that number improve in Calgary as well.
Toffoli’s projected impact coming into the season was a lower end top line forward and, with some regression toward the mean in both his shooting and his line mates’ shooting, that still looks like a reasonable expectation. His projected value is $4.35M in the 21/22 model, almost exactly at his cap hit, and he’s under contract for another two seasons. Early indications are positive for next season as well, with his preliminary projected impact in the 22/23 model coming in as a top line elite goalscoring forward.
Montreal Canadiens – Tyler Pitlick
Tyler Pitlick became the first ex-Seattle Kraken when the Flames acquired him last offseason to fill out their forward depth. It was tough sledding in Calgary for Pitlick with defensive impact above projections and anemic offensive impact at 5v5. Through 25 games this season, he’s yet to record a primary point at 5v5. He’s suffered a similar fate as Toffoli in terms of individual and on-ice shooting percentages so there is reason to believe he can gain some momentum through the second half of the season with some help from shooting percentage regression.
Pitlick’s projected impact coming into the 21/22 season was a fourth line forward. Considering his struggles thus far, he’s performing below that level at the moment but could trend there if shooting percentage luck turns in his favor. With plenty of high cost contracts for low impact players sprinkled around the league, his projected value this season is $2.99M which provides great value for his $1.75M cap hit if he can perform near his projected levels. With Pitlick a pending UFA, the cap strapped Canadiens also gained some flexibility for the offseason by moving out Toffoli’s contract.
Montreal Canadiens – Emil Heineman
Emil Heineman is a 20 forward prospect playing for Leksands IF in the SHL, where he has 20 points in 36 games this season. The Hockey Prospecting model rates him with a 30% chance of becoming a regular NHLer. Based on his star and NHLer probabilities, his prospect value comes in at $886k using the 21/22 value curves.
Montreal Canadiens – 2022 1st Round Pick (CGY)
The Canadiens big win in the deal was acquiring Calgary’s 2022 first round pick. While it’s top 10 protected, it’s hard to image the Flames falling far enough in the second half of the season for that to become a factor. The Flames are currently 9th in the league based on point percentage and look poised to stay in the battle for top seed in the Pacific. Assuming the pick ends up in the range of 21st to 32nd overall, it’s value is $1.45M.
Montreal Canadiens – 2023 5th Round Pick (CGY)
The 2023 5th round pick looks like a throw in to get the deal done. With low probability of finding an NHL player, it’s value is $364k.
The Verdict
Putting the pieces together, this looks a win-win trade. The Flames certainly got the best current player in the deal and upgraded their 21/22 roster as they look ahead to a probable postseason appearance. With two years left on Toffoli’s deal at a very reasonable cap hit, they gain a good future asset as well as they look to extend their contention window.
With the Canadiens all but finished this season, the trade signals their intent to rebuild. Current value is of little interest given their current position in the standings. They get a slight edge in future value out of the trade while also improving their cap outlook for the 2022 offseason.
If you missed the posts on assessing value, you can find them here: Part 1 (Player Impact), Part 2 (Other Factors for Players), Part 3 (Prospects and Picks), Part 4 (Future Value).
We’ll keep our eye on this trade for future updates to see how it works out in actual results. Subscribe to get future check-ins on this trade and others, along with other updates from around the NHL.
