After a small flurry of extensions signed in late January, things have slowed down around the league again on that front. There have been a couple of additional moves since the last roster news update though, so let’s take a look at them.
For more on the models and the evaluation methods used in this post, check out these posts/pages:
- About the Tools – Provides a general overview of how the models work and a description of the plots seen on the team pages.
- Player Value: Part 1 (Player Impact), Part 2 (Other Factors for Players), Part 3 (Prospects and Picks), Part 4 (Future Value).
- Determining Player Types – Describes the method used to group players by similar player types.
- 21/22 Season Projections – Main page for the 21/22 season projections with links to the team pages with greater detail.
- 22/23 Models – Detail on the improvements to the models for the 22/23 season
- 22/23 Season Projections – Main page for the 22/23 season projections. Updates will be made periodically as more 21/22 season data becomes available.
Robert Bortuzzo – St Louis Blues – Extension
Robert Bortuzzo is having a difficult season in St Louis. Coming into the season, his projected impact was a 2nd pair defenseman. He’s struggled this on both sides of the puck this year with a 5v5 xGA/60 sitting above the 75th percentile and a 5v5 GF/60 that is near the league low. Both are much worse than his projected numbers and the Blues are clearly hoping it’s a bump in the road rather than a downward trend.
With this year’s poor results considered, Bortuzzo’s initial proejcted impact for the 22/23 season is a replacement level depth defenseman. The market rate for defensemen of his impact is currently $3M due to a mix of contracts near the league minimum and some fairly exorbitant deals. The overall value curve sits even higher at Bortuzzo’s impact level, reflecting the number of poor value contracts around the league for lower impact defensemen. Bortuzzo isn’t going to move the needle much for overall team performance but, at a $950k cap hit, the Blues managed a reasonable deal with Bortuzzo and should get decent value even if he falls into a seventh defenseman role.
- Extension Cap Hit: $950k
- Length: 2 years
- UFA Market Rate: $3.0M
- 22/23 Projected Impact: Replacement Level Depth Defenseman
- 22/23 Projected Value: $3.36M
Pat Maroon – Tampa Bay Lightning – Extension
Pat Maroon has maintained his status as a valuable bottom six forward into his mid-30s. Projected as a 3rd line forward this season, Maroon has continued to contribute to the Lightning. His individual offensive numbers are slightly below projected this season, giving reason for pause with an older player. However, his on-ice offensive and defensive impacts sit very close to projections.
For the 22/23 season, the initial projection for Maroon is a 3rd Line Two-Way Playmaking Forward. With the UFA market rate for forwards of Maroon’s impact sitting at $2.65M and the overall value curve at $3.8, Maroon’s $1M cap hit for the next two seasons looks like a steal. The Lightning continue to find high value deals to fill out their depth and Maroon’s extension is no exception.
- Extension Cap Hit: $1.0M
- Length: 2 years
- UFA Market Rate: $2.65M
- 22/23 Projected Impact: 3rd Line Two-way Playmaking Forward
- 22/23 Projected Value: $3.8M
Input data for the models from Natural Stat Trick. Contract data from CapFriendly. Rookie projections based on NHLe from Hockey Prospecting.
