Heading into the expansion draft last offseason, the Colorado Avalanche looked like they would lose a high quality player to Seattle. Rather than risk losing him for nothing, the Avalanche dealt defenseman Ryan Graves to the New Jersey Devils for forward Mikhail Maltsev and a draft pick. Let’s look in on the returns through the first half of the 2021-2022 season.
The Trade
Date: July 15, 2021
To New Jersey Devils:
- Ryan Graves (2 years remaining @ $3.17M cap hit, age 26, UFA on expiry)
To Colorado Avalanche:
- Mikhail Maltsev (1 year remaining @ $809k cap hit, age 23, RFA on expiry)
- 2021 2nd Round Pick (NYI)
Initial Value Assessment
The Devils took advantage of the pre-expansion landscape and got a smoking good deal on a top four defenseman. Ryan Graves had a projected impact of a top pair defenseman for the 21/22 season with a projected value of $4.27M. With a cap hit of just over $3M, the Devils not only got a high impact defenseman, but got him on a high value contract as well. The return for the Avalanche was more than the nothing they would have received by losing Graves in the expansion draft, but was nowhere near his total value. With the total value for Graves coming in at roughly triple the return for Colorado, the initial assessment shows a solid win by New Jersey in this trade.
| To NJD | To COL | |
| Ryan Graves – Player Impact (1.05 5v5 Net G/60 AR) | $4,727,000 | – |
| Ryan Graves – Contract Expiry Status (UFA) | $0 | – |
| Ryan Graves – Opportunity Cost | $1,560,333 | – |
| Mikhail Maltsev – Player Impact (0 5v5 Net G/60 AR) | – | $1,007,000 |
| Mikhail Maltsev – Contract Expiry Status (RFA) | – | -$9,470 |
| Mikhail Maltsev – Opportunity Cost | – | $197,333 |
| 2021 2nd Round Pick (NYI) | – | $914,275 |
| Total Value | $6,287,333 | $2,109,138 |
If you missed the posts on assessing value, you can find them here: Part 1 (Player Impact), Part 2 (Other Factors for Players), Part 3 (Prospects and Picks).
Performance Updates
We’re now through half a season following this trade. Let’s take a look at how each player and pick has performed since the trade to see of there is reason to change the verdict.
New Jersey Devils – Ryan Graves
Graves has performed near his projected impact offensively through his first 40 games in New Jersey, with the exeption of 5v5 G/60. He’s shooting 4.8%, which is near average for defensemen, so there isn’t reason to expect upward regression. He’s made up for it somewhat with higher than projected assist rates, though. Defensively, his on-ice 5v5 xGA/60 has taken a hit relative to projection, which is likely due to the move to a Devils team that is not as strong defensively as the Avalanche as well as perhaps an increased role.
Colorado Avalanche – Mikhail Maltsev
Maltsev came to the Avalanche with 33 career NHL games under his belt and a projected impact of a replacement level forward. He’s seen spot duty for the Avs this season, getting into 18 games but only averaging seven 5v5 minutes a game. His defensive impact has been good in the limited sample size, but offense has been non-existent.
Colorado Avalanche – 2022 2th Round Pick (NYI)
The Avalanche selected defenseman Sean Behrens with the 61st pick in the 2021 entry draft. Behrens is playing in the NCAA for the University of Denver this season, where he has 21 points in 22 games. Based on Hockey Prospecting‘s star and NHLer probabilities, Behrens comes in at a value of $1,807,400. It looks like a good selection by the Avs, roughly doubling the original value of the 2nd round pick.
The Verdict
The Devils tripled their investment in the initial assessment of this trade but the gap has narrowed since. Ryan Graves is having a good season in New Jersey, but is trending below his projected impact. The Avalanche made what looks like a good selection with their second round pick, closing the gap further. The trade looks less lopsided half a season later, but New Jersey still has the upper hand.
There’s plenty of time for the results of this trade to evolve, so we’ll keep our eye on it for future updates. Subscribe to get future check-ins on this trade and others, check-ins on free agent signings, armchair GM plans, and other updates from around the NHL.
